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Fifteenth Information Drop (internal) Your team identifies which units are located in the Central Highlands and task the imagery community to examine them and the

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Fifteenth Information Drop (internal) Your team identifies which units are located in the Central Highlands and task the imagery community to examine them and the SIGINT community to look for unusual communications. The imagery analysts identify three PG-associated sites in the Central Highlands that are consistent with the description in the plans. SIGINT shows that all three of them belong to the active secure VPN network. The imagery analysts provide a before and after three-dimensional, multispectral analysis of the areas around these three PG sites. Site A: New security barriers and a guard post have been built at the entrance to a long forest road that leads to a remote ski station with several chalet-style buildings believed to have been used in the past only by the PG military and their families. There has been recent construction work including a new perimeter attempt by a friendly defense attache to drive up the road was recently abruptly refused by an armed guard. Site B: There is construction of new housing behind a perimeter fence that also has administrative buildings and workshops inside the fence. The site is close to a barracks and sophisticated training facilities including a mock-up village used by the SS PG for VIP protection training. This area is known to be heavily out of bounds for visitors. Site C: Heavy cloud cover has obstructed direct photo reconnaissance, but radar imagery shows several buildings that could fit the plans inside a training area that includes close-quarter combat ranges a few miles from the Army Staff College. Analysis of infrared imagery shows the area has been fenced off with a substantial barrier (whose differential heat signature shows up at dusk) as well as areas of disturbed earth close to the entrance to an old mine. So the imagery analysts speculate that there are also underground facilities there. If you were to ignore all intelligence available to discriminate among the sites, then each of the three sites is a realistic possibility, so the probability that is at any one of these sites is one-third. 13) If X is an indiscriminant choice between sites A, B, or C, write the probability model of choosing the correct site

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