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Figure 3 - 5 ) shows a decision tree based on a firm's choice to either introduce a product immediately or to wait until after
Figure shows a decision tree based on a firm's choice to either introduce a product immediately or to wait until after they know more about the market and improve both its appeal and possibly its profitability.
Using this decision tree, assume the chance of a competitor entering the marketplace within the next year is If the firm introduces the product immediately, the chance of 'high demand' is but if they spend a year assessing the market for their product, they'll improve that to
If there is a high demand for their product now, the NPV of the project is estimated at $ thousand. If they wait a year, the 'high demand' scenario is worth $ million assuming no competitor enters the market in the meantime. A competitor entering the marketplace cuts the NPV in half. The 'low demand' scenario is always exactly of the NPV of the corresponding 'high demand' scenario.
What is the value of this project, rounded to the nearest dollar?
Figure Decision Tree for Timing a New Product Offering
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