FIN 330 Excel Assignment #2 Fall 2023 As the junior fixed-income analyst, you are tasked with developing a presentation to a pension fund client. The pension fund client has concerns regarding the current economic landscape and the performance of US corporate bonds, specifically the default risk premium. Based on your research, you have concluded that the default risk premium can be measured by the yield-spread between comparable maturity corporate bonds and U.S. Treasury bonds. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) publishes various series of spreads across ratings of corporate bonds. In addition, the FRS also publishes a time series of changes in U. S. Gross Domestic Product. To conduct your analysis, you have prepared

Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield Relative to Yield on 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity - contains the monthly spreads (January 1970 April 2022) between Corporate Baa Yields and 10-yr Constant Maturity Treasury Bonds. Changes in Real Gross Domestic Product the quarterly percentage change (Q1Y1970 Q2Y2022) in Real Gross Domestic Product. Your assignment is to plot both series, on one graph, and indicate the periods of recession in the U.S. economy from 1970 - 2022. Also, you are to determine if the changes in credit spreads precede or follow periods of economic recession.

Date Corporate Baa Yield - 10-yr Constant Maturity Treasury Bonds 1970-01-01 1.07 1970-02-01 1.54 1970-03-01 1.56 1970-04-01 1.31 1970-05-01 1.07 1970-06-01 1.41 1970-07-01 1.94 1970-08-01 1.91 1970-09-01 2.00 1970-10-01 2.00 1970-11-01 2.54 1970-12-01 2.73 1971-01-01 2.50 1971-02-01 2.28 1971-03-01 2.76 1971-04-01 2.62 1971-05-01 2.23 1971-06-01 2.23 1971-07-01 2.03 1971-08-01 2.18 1971-09-01 2.45 1971-10-01 2.55 1971-11-01 2.57 1971-12-01 2.45 1972-01-01 2.28 1972-02-01 2.15 1972-03-01 2.17 1972-04-01 2.05 1972-05-01 2.10 1972-06-01 2.09 1972-07-01 2.12 1972-08-01 1.98 1972-09-01 1.54 1972-10-01 1.58 1972-11-01 1.71 1972-12-01 1.57 1973-01-01 1.44 1973-02-01 1.33 1973-03-01 1.32 1973-04-01 1.42 1973-05-01 1.21 1973-06-01 1.23 1973-07-01 1.11 1973-08-01 1.13 1973-09-01 1.54 1973-10-01 1.62 1973-11-01 1.69 1973-12-01 1.74 1974-01-01 1.49 1974-02-01 1.57 1974-03-01 1.41 1974-04-01 1.36 1974-05-01 1.47 1974-06-01 1.73 1974-07-01 1.67 1974-08-01 1.73 1974-09-01 2.14 1974-10-01 2.58 1974-11-01 2.92 1974-12-01 3.20 1975-01-01 3.31 1975-02-01 3.26 1975-03-01 2.75 1975-04-01 2.35 1975-05-01 2.63 1975-06-01 2.76 1975-07-01 2.49 1975-08-01 2.19 1975-09-01 2.18 1975-10-01 2.48 1975-11-01 2.51 1975-12-01 2.56 1976-01-01 2.67 1976-02-01 2.45 1976-03-01 2.39 1976-04-01 2.38 1976-05-01 1.96 1976-06-01 2.03 1976-07-01 1.99 1976-08-01 1.87 1976-09-01 1.81 1976-10-01 1.88 1976-11-01 1.94 1976-12-01 2.25 1977-01-01 1.87 1977-02-01 1.73 1977-03-01 1.66 1977-04-01 1.70 1977-05-01 1.55 1977-06-01 1.63 1977-07-01 1.54 1977-08-01 1.42 1977-09-01 1.46 1977-10-01 1.37 1977-11-01 1.37 1977-12-01 1.30 1978-01-01 1.21 1978-02-01 1.17 1978-03-01 1.18 1978-04-01 1.17 1978-05-01 1.14 1978-06-01 1.14 1978-07-01 0.96 1978-08-01 1.07 1978-09-01 1.00 1978-10-01 0.95 1978-11-01 1.02 1978-12-01 0.93 1979-01-01 1.03 1979-02-01 0.98 1979-03-01 1.14 1979-04-01 1.15 1979-05-01 1.22 1979-06-01 1.47 1979-07-01 1.34 1979-08-01 1.32 1979-09-01 1.21 1979-10-01 1.10 1979-11-01 1.34 1979-12-01 1.67 1980-01-01 1.62 1980-02-01 1.16 1980-03-01 1.70 1980-04-01 2.72 1980-05-01 2.99 1980-06-01 2.93 1980-07-01 2.40 1980-08-01 2.05 1980-09-01 2.19 1980-10-01 2.48 1980-11-01 1.96 1980-12-01 2.30 1981-01-01 2.46 1981-02-01 2.18 1981-03-01 2.22 1981-04-01 1.88 1981-05-01 1.85 1981-06-01 2.33 1981-07-01 1.89 1981-08-01 1.40 1981-09-01 1.60 1981-10-01 1.96 1981-11-01 3.00 1981-12-01 2.83 1982-01-01 2.51 1982-02-01 2.75 1982-03-01 2.96 1982-04-01 2.91 1982-05-01 3.02 1982-06-01 2.62 1982-07-01 2.85 1982-08-01 3.26 1982-09-01 3.29 1982-10-01 3.82 1982-11-01 3.75 1982-12-01 3.60 1983-01-01 3.48 1983-02-01 3.23 1983-03-01 3.10 1983-04-01 2.89 1983-05-01 2.71 1983-06-01 2.52 1983-07-01 2.01 1983-08-01 1.79 1983-09-01 1.90 1983-10-01 1.92 1983-11-01 1.92 1983-12-01 1.92 1984-01-01 1.98 1984-02-01 1.75 1984-03-01 1.67 1984-04-01 1.68 1984-05-01 1.33 1984-06-01 1.49 1984-07-01 1.79 1984-08-01 1.91 1984-09-01 1.83 1984-10-01 1.78 1984-11-01 1.91 1984-12-01 1.90 1985-01-01 1.88 1985-02-01 1.72 1985-03-01 1.83 1985-04-01 2.08 1985-05-01 2.30 1985-06-01 2.24 1985-07-01 2.12 1985-08-01 2.17 1985-09-01 2.11 1985-10-01 2.12 1985-11-01 2.21 1985-12-01 2.32 1986-01-01 2.25 1986-02-01 2.41 1986-03-01 2.72 1986-04-01 2.89 1986-05-01 2.58 1986-06-01 2.54 1986-07-01 2.86 1986-08-01 3.01 1986-09-01 2.75 1986-10-01 2.81 1986-11-01 2.82 1986-12-01 2.86 1987-01-01 2.64 1987-02-01 2.40 1987-03-01 2.36 1987-04-01 2.02 1987-05-01 1.90 1987-06-01 2.12 1987-07-01 2.16 1987-08-01 2.04 1987-09-01 1.89 1987-10-01 2.10 1987-11-01 2.37 1987-12-01 2.30 1988-01-01 2.40 1988-02-01 2.41 1988-03-01 2.20 1988-04-01 2.18 1988-05-01 1.95 1988-06-01 2.08 1988-07-01 2.05 1988-08-01 1.95 1988-09-01 1.92 1988-10-01 1.61 1988-11-01 1.52 1988-12-01 1.54 1989-01-01 1.56 1989-02-01 1.44 1989-03-01 1.31 1989-04-01 1.43 1989-05-01 1.60 1989-06-01 1.75 1989-07-01 1.85 1989-08-01 1.77 1989-09-01 1.72 1989-10-01 1.80 1989-11-01 1.94 1989-12-01 1.98 1990-01-01 1.73 1990-02-01 1.67 1990-03-01 1.62 1990-04-01 1.51 1990-05-01 1.65 1990-06-01 1.74 1990-07-01 1.73 1990-08-01 1.66 1990-09-01 1.75 1990-10-01 2.02 1990-11-01 2.23 1990-12-01 2.35 1991-01-01 2.36 1991-02-01 2.22 1991-03-01 1.98 1991-04-01 1.90 1991-05-01 1.79 1991-06-01 1.68 1991-07-01 1.62 1991-08-01 1.75 1991-09-01 1.86 1991-10-01 1.96 1991-11-01 2.03 1991-12-01 2.17 1992-01-01 2.10 1992-02-01 1.89 1992-03-01 1.71 1992-04-01 1.73 1992-05-01 1.74 1992-06-01 1.79 1992-07-01 2.00 1992-08-01 2.06 1992-09-01 2.20 1992-10-01 2.25 1992-11-01 2.09 1992-12-01 2.04 1993-01-01 2.07 1993-02-01 2.13 1993-03-01 2.17 1993-04-01 2.17 1993-05-01 2.17 1993-06-01 2.11 1993-07-01 2.12 1993-08-01 1.92 1993-09-01 1.98 1993-10-01 1.98 1993-11-01 1.94 1993-12-01 1.92 1994-01-01 1.90 1994-02-01 1.79 1994-03-01 1.65 1994-04-01 1.55 1994-05-01 1.44 1994-06-01 1.55 1994-07-01 1.50 1994-08-01 1.50 1994-09-01 1.52 1994-10-01 1.46 1994-11-01 1.36 1994-12-01 1.29 1995-01-01 1.30 1995-02-01 1.38 1995-03-01 1.50 1995-04-01 1.54 1995-05-01 1.57 1995-06-01 1.73 1995-07-01 1.76 1995-08-01 1.70 1995-09-01 1.73 1995-10-01 1.71 1995-11-01 1.75 1995-12-01 1.78 1996-01-01 1.82 1996-02-01 1.82 1996-03-01 1.76 1996-04-01 1.68 1996-05-01 1.56 1996-06-01 1.49 1996-07-01 1.48 1996-08-01 1.54 1996-09-01 1.52 1996-10-01 1.54 1996-11-01 1.59 1996-12-01 1.59 1997-01-01 1.51 1997-02-01 1.52 1997-03-01 1.49 1997-04-01 1.45 1997-05-01 1.49 1997-06-01 1.53 1997-07-01 1.53 1997-08-01 1.52 1997-09-01 1.49 1997-10-01 1.54 1997-11-01 1.54 1997-12-01 1.51 1998-01-01 1.65 1998-02-01 1.68 1998-03-01 1.67 1998-04-01 1.69 1998-05-01 1.65 1998-06-01 1.63 1998-07-01 1.69 1998-08-01 1.80 1998-09-01 2.28 1998-10-01 2.65 1998-11-01 2.51 1998-12-01 2.58 1999-01-01 2.57 1999-02-01 2.39 1999-03-01 2.30 1999-04-01 2.30 1999-05-01 2.18 1999-06-01 2.12 1999-07-01 2.16 1999-08-01 2.21 1999-09-01 2.28 1999-10-01 2.27 1999-11-01 2.12 1999-12-01 1.91 2000-01-01 1.67 2000-02-01 1.77 2000-03-01 2.11 2000-04-01 2.41 2000-05-01 2.46 2000-06-01 2.38 2000-07-01 2.30 2000-08-01 2.43 2000-09-01 2.55 2000-10-01 2.60 2000-11-01 2.56 2000-12-01 2.78 2001-01-01 2.77 2001-02-01 2.77 2001-03-01 2.95 2001-04-01 2.93 2001-05-01 2.68 2001-06-01 2.69 2001-07-01 2.73 2001-08-01 2.88 2001-09-01 3.30 2001-10-01 3.34 2001-11-01 3.16 2001-12-01 2.96 2002-01-01 2.83 2002-02-01 2.98 2002-03-01 2.83 2002-04-01 2.82 2002-05-01 2.93 2002-06-01 3.02 2002-07-01 3.25 2002-08-01 3.32 2002-09-01 3.53 2002-10-01 3.79 2002-11-01 3.57 2002-12-01 3.42 2003-01-01 3.30 2003-02-01 3.16 2003-03-01 3.14 2003-04-01 2.89 2003-05-01 2.81 2003-06-01 2.86 2003-07-01 2.64 2003-08-01 2.56 2003-09-01 2.52 2003-10-01 2.44 2003-11-01 2.36 2003-12-01 2.33 2004-01-01 2.29 2004-02-01 2.19 2004-03-01 2.28 2004-04-01 2.11 2004-05-01 2.03 2004-06-01 2.05 2004-07-01 2.12 2004-08-01 2.18 2004-09-01 2.14 2004-10-01 2.11 2004-11-01 2.01 2004-12-01 1.92 2005-01-01 1.80 2005-02-01 1.65 2005-03-01 1.56 2005-04-01 1.71 2005-05-01 1.87 2005-06-01 1.86 2005-07-01 1.77 2005-08-01 1.70 2005-09-01 1.83 2005-10-01 1.84 2005-11-01 1.85 2005-12-01 1.85 2006-01-01 1.82 2006-02-01 1.70 2006-03-01 1.69 2006-04-01 1.69 2006-05-01 1.64 2006-06-01 1.67 2006-07-01 1.67 2006-08-01 1.71 2006-09-01 1.71 2006-10-01 1.69 2006-11-01 1.60 2006-12-01 1.66 2007-01-01 1.58 2007-02-01 1.56 2007-03-01 1.71 2007-04-01 1.70 2007-05-01 1.64 2007-06-01 1.60 2007-07-01 1.65 2007-08-01 1.98 2007-09-01 2.07 2007-10-01 1.95 2007-11-01 2.25 2007-12-01 2.55 2008-01-01 2.80 2008-02-01 3.08 2008-03-01 3.38 2008-04-01 3.29 2008-05-01 3.05 2008-06-01 2.97 2008-07-01 3.15 2008-08-01 3.26 2008-09-01 3.62 2008-10-01 5.07 2008-11-01 5.68 2008-12-01 6.01 2009-01-01 5.62 2009-02-01 5.21 2009-03-01 5.60 2009-04-01 5.46 2009-05-01 4.77 2009-06-01 3.78 2009-07-01 3.53 2009-08-01 2.99 2009-09-01 2.91 2009-10-01 2.90 2009-11-01 2.92 2009-12-01 2.78 2010-01-01 2.52 2010-02-01 2.65 2010-03-01 2.54 2010-04-01 2.40 2010-05-01 2.63 2010-06-01 3.03 2010-07-01 3.00 2010-08-01 2.96 2010-09-01 3.01 2010-10-01 3.18 2010-11-01 3.16 2010-12-01 2.81 2011-01-01 2.70 2011-02-01 2.57 2011-03-01 2.62 2011-04-01 2.56 2011-05-01 2.61 2011-06-01 2.75 2011-07-01 2.76 2011-08-01 3.06 2011-09-01 3.29 2011-10-01 3.22 2011-11-01 3.13 2011-12-01 3.27 2012-01-01 3.26 2012-02-01 3.17 2012-03-01 3.06 2012-04-01 3.14 2012-05-01 3.27 2012-06-01 3.40 2012-07-01 3.34 2012-08-01 3.23 2012-09-01 3.12 2012-10-01 2.83 2012-11-01 2.86 2012-12-01 2.91 2013-01-01 2.82 2013-02-01 2.87 2013-03-01 2.89 2013-04-01 2.83 2013-05-01 2.80 2013-06-01 2.89 2013-07-01 2.74 2013-08-01 2.68 2013-09-01 2.66 2013-10-01 2.69 2013-11-01 2.66 2013-12-01 2.48 2014-01-01 2.33 2014-02-01 2.39 2014-03-01 2.34 2014-04-01 2.19 2014-05-01 2.20 2014-06-01 2.20 2014-07-01 2.19 2014-08-01 2.27 2014-09-01 2.27 2014-10-01 2.39 2014-11-01 2.46 2014-12-01 2.53 2015-01-01 2.57 2015-02-01 2.53 2015-03-01 2.50 2015-04-01 2.54 2015-05-01 2.69 2015-06-01 2.77 2015-07-01 2.88 2015-08-01 3.02 2015-09-01 3.17 2015-10-01 3.27 2015-11-01 3.20 2015-12-01 3.22 2016-01-01 3.36 2016-02-01 3.56 2016-03-01 3.24 2016-04-01 2.98 2016-05-01 2.87 2016-06-01 2.89 2016-07-01 2.72 2016-08-01 2.68 2016-09-01 2.68 2016-10-01 2.62 2016-11-01 2.57 2016-12-01 2.34 2017-01-01 2.23 2017-02-01 2.22 2017-03-01 2.20 2017-04-01 2.27 2017-05-01 2.25 2017-06-01 2.18 2017-07-01 2.07 2017-08-01 2.10 2017-09-01 2.10 2017-10-01 1.96 2017-11-01 1.92 2017-12-01 1.82 2018-01-01 1.68 2018-02-01 1.65 2018-03-01 1.80 2018-04-01 1.80 2018-05-01 1.85 2018-06-01 1.92 2018-07-01 1.90 2018-08-01 1.88 2018-09-01 1.88 2018-10-01 1.92 2018-11-01 2.10 2018-12-01 2.30 2019-01-01 2.41 2019-02-01 2.27 2019-03-01 2.27 2019-04-01 2.17 2019-05-01 2.23 2019-06-01 2.39 2019-07-01 2.22 2019-08-01 2.24 2019-09-01 2.21 2019-10-01 2.21 2019-11-01 2.13 2019-12-01 2.02 2020-01-01 2.01 2020-02-01 2.11 2020-03-01 3.42 2020-04-01 3.47 2020-05-01 3.28 2020-06-01 2.91 2020-07-01 2.69 2020-08-01 2.62 2020-09-01 2.68 2020-10-01 2.65 2020-11-01 2.43 2020-12-01 2.23 2021-01-01 2.16 2021-02-01 2.16 2021-03-01 2.13 2021-04-01 1.97 2021-05-01 2.00 2021-06-01 1.93 2021-07-01 1.93 2021-08-01 1.96 2021-09-01 1.86 2021-10-01 1.77 2021-11-01 1.72 2021-12-01 1.83 2022-01-01 1.82 2022-02-01 2.03 2022-03-01 2.17