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Posted on Jul 27, 2024

Forecast Analysis I computed the monthly forecast for February through December of year t using the nave method, a three-month moving average, a five month

Forecast Analysis

I computed the monthly forecast for February through December of year t using the nave method, a three-month moving average, a five month moving average, and a three-month weighted moving average (0.45/0.35/0.2).
Considering data for year t only, I used two applications of exponential smoothing (a = 0.3 and a = 0.5) to compute a forecast for January of year t+1.
I believe that there is an upward trend in the demand for peppers as time passes. I used trend-adjusted exponential smoothing and ALL of the available data with (a = 0.5 and b = 0.3) to compute the demand forecast for January of year t+1.
I also computed the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for each of the methods used, basing it on ALL of the available data.

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Based on this findings, which method would you suggest provides the best information?
None of the methods provided above does anything meaningful to address the possibility of seasonality. I am worried that the forecasts do not adequately manage this possibility. please include any pertinent advice you might give me about the trends and levels you are observing. Then, provide advice about procedures that could be used to address the seasonality problem I am worried about (it is not necessary to actually execute these proceduresjust advise on what they are) assuming that ALL of the available data can be used in making the seasonality assessment.

Month Jan Feb Mar May Jun Jul Aug Sept Nov Dec 25 | 26 | 28 | 25 | 29 | 30 | 31 || 31 | 36 | 37 | 38 | Cases of Peppers, Year t-2 33 37 | 37 34 44 | 46 | 40 45 50 50 49 5 3 Cases of Peppers, Year t-1 37 40 | 41 | 37 | 45 50 43 47 56 52 55 54 Cases of Peppers, Yeart N S T x | AH DEF G H nave Error ABS Error Error^2 ABS % Error O MA P Q R Error ABS Error Error^2 ABS % Error Y MA | Z AA AB I TACAD Error ABS Error Error12 ABS % Error AI MA AJAK LAK ALAM Error ABS Error Error^2 ABS % Error 1 25 25 25 1 25 1 U V Year Month Caae of Peppers 1 JAN 1 FEB 26 MAR APR MAY 29 JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN | Year Month Caae of Peppers JAN 1 FEB 26 MAR APR MAY 29 JUN JUL AUG SEP 1 NOV 1 DEC 2 JAN 2 FEB 2 MAR 2 APR MAY JUN JUL 2 AUG SEP W 102 3 # 5 TTT TTTT K L Year Month Caae of Peppers 1 JAN 1 FEB 26 MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB 2 MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG 47 SEP 7 3 2 | AE | AF AG Year Month Case of Peppers JAN FEB 26 MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV 3 DEC JUL 10 PUW ||||||| 2 P 5 7 |-7.80 7.80 19.50% wwww 47.80 45.80 60.84 23.04 4.80 4.80 11.71% w NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP w 37.00 3.00 40.00 1.00 41.00 4.00 37.00 8.00 45.00 5.00 50.00 -7.00 43.00 4.00 47.00 9.00 56.00 -4.00 52.00 3.00 55.00 -1.00 54.00 UI U PW 10 3.00 1.00 4.00 8.00 5.00 7.00 4.00 9.00 4.00 3.00 1.00 9.00 1.00 16.00 64.00 25.00 49.00 16.00 81.00 16.00 9.00 1.00 7.50% 2.44% 10.81% 17.78% 10.00% 16.28% 8.51% 16.07% 7.69% 5.45% 1.85% AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP NOV DEC 46.33 43.33 39.33 39.33 41.00 44.00 46.00 46.67 48.67 51.67 54.33 53.67 -6.33 -2.33 -2.33 5.67 9.00 -1.00 1.00 9.33 3.33 3.33 0.33 6.33 40.11 15.83% 2.33 5.44 5.69% 2.335.446.31% 5.67 32.11 12.59% 9.00 81.00 18.00% 1.00 1.00 2.33% 1.00 1.00 2.13% 9.33 87.11 16.67% 3.33 11.11 6.41% 3.33 11.11 6.06% 0.33 0.11 0.62% 44.00 41.60 40.00 42.60 43.20 44.40 48.20 49.60 -7.00 3.40 10.00 0.40 3.80 11.60 3.80 5.40 7.00 3.40 10.00 0.40 3.80 11.60 3.80 5.40 49.00 11.56 100.00 0.16 14.44 134.56 14.44 29.16 18.92% 7.56% 20.00% 0.93% 8.09% 20.71% 7.31% 9.82% 6.30% 45.00 5.00 41.55 -0.55 | 39.85 -2.85 39.00 6.00 41.40 8.60 45.65 -2.65 45.85 1.15 46.209.80 50.25 1.75 52.40 2.60 54.15 0.15 53.95 5.00 0.55 2.85 6.00 8.60 2.65 1.15 9.80 1.75 2.60 0.15 25.00 0.30 8.12 36.00 73.96 7.02 1.32 96.04 3.06 6.76 0.02 12.50% 1.34% 7.70% 13.33% 17.20% 6.16% 2.45% 17.50% 3.37% 4.73% . 52 ww 3 55 | NOV DEC NOV DEC - 3 54 3 3.40 3.40 11.56 0.28% 50.60 52.80 4.45 MAD 26.099.49% MSE MAPE 4.00 MAD 25.05 MSE 8.42% MAPE 5.58 MAD 40.80 MSE 11.89% MAPE 3.74 MAD 23.42 MSE 7.87% MAPE | A | B | KL W AB AC AD AE Exponential Smooth = 0.3) ExponentialSmooth = 0.5) Forecast, Ft+0 Trend, Tt+1 Forecast a=.5, B=. 3 AFt Error ABS Error Error^2 ABS % Error Error ABS Error Error2 ABS % Error Caae of Peppers Error ABS Error Error2 ABS % Error 26 28) 37 Year Month Case of Peppers 1 JAN 1 FEB 1 MAR 1 APR 1 MAY 1 JUN 1 JUL 1 AUG 1 SEP 1 OCT 1 NOV 1 DEC 2 JAN 2 FEB 2 MAR 2 APR 2 MAY 2 JUN 2 JUL 2 AUG 2 SEP 2 OCT 2 NOV 2 DEC 3 JAN 3 FEB 3 MAR 3 APR 3 MAY 3 JUN 3 JUL 3 AUG 3 SEP 3 OCT 3 NOV 3 DEC 3 Year Month Caae of Peppers 1 JAN 1 FEB 1 MAR 1 APR 1 MAY 1 JUN 1 JUL 1 AUG 1 SEP 1 OCT 1 NOV 1 DEC 2 JAN 2 FEB 2 MAR 2 APR 2 MAY 2 JUN 2 JUL 2 AUG 2 SEP 2 OCT 2 NOV 2 DEC 3 JAN 3 FEB 3 MAR 3 APR 3 MAY 3 JUN 3 JUL 3 AUG 3 SEP 3 NOV 3 DEC Month 1 JAN 1 FEB 1 MAR 1 APR 1 MAY 1 JUN 1 JUL 1 AUG 1 SEP 1 OCT 1 NOV 1 DEC 2 JAN 2 FEB 2 MAR 2 APR 2 MAY 2 JUN 2 JUL 2 AUG 2 SEP 2 OCT 2 NOV 2 DEC 3 JAN 3 FEB 3 MAR 3 APR 3 MAY 3 JUN 3 JUL 3 AUG 31 SEP 3 NOV 3 DEC III -= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = 2 49 0.00 3.00 3.10 -1.83 6.721 9.701 37.00 37.00 37.90 38.83 38.28 40.30 43,21 43.15 44.30 47.81 49.07 50.85 51.79 0.00 3.00 3.10 1.83 6.72 9.70 0.21 3.85 11.70 4.19 5.93 3.15 0.00 9.00 9.61 3.35 45.14 94.15 0.04 14.86 136.85| 17.55 35.19 9.94 0.00% 7.50% 7.56% 4.95% 14.93% 19.41% 0.48% 8. 20% 20.89% 8.06% 10.79% 5.84% 37.00 37.00 38.50 39.75 38.38 41.69 45.84 44,42 45.71 50.86 51.43 53.21 53.61 0.00 3.00 2.50 -2.75 6.63 8.31 -2.84 2.58 10.29 1.14 3.571 0.79 0.00 3.00 2.50 2.75 6.63 8.31 2.841 2.58 10.291 1.14 3.57 0.00 9.00 6.25 7.56 43.89 69.10 8.09 6.65 105.86 1.31) 12.76 0.62 0.00% 7.50% 6.10% 7.43% 14.72% 16.63% 6.61% 5.49% 18.379 2.20% 6.50% 1.46% 37.00 37.00 38.50 39.98 38.87 42.03 46.56 45.84 47.05 52.15 53.28 55.15 55.56 37.00 37.00 38.95 40.73) 39.06 43.12 48.68 47.11 48.31 54.56 55.30 57.13 57.07 0.00 3.00 2.05 -3.73 5.94 6.88 -5.68 -0.11 7.69 -2.56 -0.30 -3.13 0.45 0.76 0.20 1.09 2.12 1.27 1.25 2.41 2.02 1.98 1.51 -0.21 0.00 3.00 2.05 3.73 5.94 6.881 5.68 0.11 7.691 2.56) 0.30 3.13 0.00 9.00 4.20 13.93 35.24 47.33 32.26) 0.01) 59.20 6.55) 0.09 9.78 0.00% 7.50% 5.00% 10.09% 13. 19% 13.76% 13.21% 0.23% 13.74% 4.92% 0.55% 5.79% 3.851 11.70 4.19 5.93 3.15 0.79 7 4.45 MAD 31.31 MSE 9.05% MAPE 3.70 MAD 22.59 MSE 7.75% MAPE 3.42 MAD 18.13 MSE .33% MAPE Month Jan Feb Mar May Jun Jul Aug Sept Nov Dec 25 | 26 | 28 | 25 | 29 | 30 | 31 || 31 | 36 | 37 | 38 | Cases of Peppers, Year t-2 33 37 | 37 34 44 | 46 | 40 45 50 50 49 5 3 Cases of Peppers, Year t-1 37 40 | 41 | 37 | 45 50 43 47 56 52 55 54 Cases of Peppers, Yeart N S T x | AH DEF G H nave Error ABS Error Error^2 ABS % Error O MA P Q R Error ABS Error Error^2 ABS % Error Y MA | Z AA AB I TACAD Error ABS Error Error12 ABS % Error AI MA AJAK LAK ALAM Error ABS Error Error^2 ABS % Error 1 25 25 25 1 25 1 U V Year Month Caae of Peppers 1 JAN 1 FEB 26 MAR APR MAY 29 JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN | Year Month Caae of Peppers JAN 1 FEB 26 MAR APR MAY 29 JUN JUL AUG SEP 1 NOV 1 DEC 2 JAN 2 FEB 2 MAR 2 APR MAY JUN JUL 2 AUG SEP W 102 3 # 5 TTT TTTT K L Year Month Caae of Peppers 1 JAN 1 FEB 26 MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB 2 MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG 47 SEP 7 3 2 | AE | AF AG Year Month Case of Peppers JAN FEB 26 MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV 3 DEC JUL 10 PUW ||||||| 2 P 5 7 |-7.80 7.80 19.50% wwww 47.80 45.80 60.84 23.04 4.80 4.80 11.71% w NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP w 37.00 3.00 40.00 1.00 41.00 4.00 37.00 8.00 45.00 5.00 50.00 -7.00 43.00 4.00 47.00 9.00 56.00 -4.00 52.00 3.00 55.00 -1.00 54.00 UI U PW 10 3.00 1.00 4.00 8.00 5.00 7.00 4.00 9.00 4.00 3.00 1.00 9.00 1.00 16.00 64.00 25.00 49.00 16.00 81.00 16.00 9.00 1.00 7.50% 2.44% 10.81% 17.78% 10.00% 16.28% 8.51% 16.07% 7.69% 5.45% 1.85% AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP NOV DEC 46.33 43.33 39.33 39.33 41.00 44.00 46.00 46.67 48.67 51.67 54.33 53.67 -6.33 -2.33 -2.33 5.67 9.00 -1.00 1.00 9.33 3.33 3.33 0.33 6.33 40.11 15.83% 2.33 5.44 5.69% 2.335.446.31% 5.67 32.11 12.59% 9.00 81.00 18.00% 1.00 1.00 2.33% 1.00 1.00 2.13% 9.33 87.11 16.67% 3.33 11.11 6.41% 3.33 11.11 6.06% 0.33 0.11 0.62% 44.00 41.60 40.00 42.60 43.20 44.40 48.20 49.60 -7.00 3.40 10.00 0.40 3.80 11.60 3.80 5.40 7.00 3.40 10.00 0.40 3.80 11.60 3.80 5.40 49.00 11.56 100.00 0.16 14.44 134.56 14.44 29.16 18.92% 7.56% 20.00% 0.93% 8.09% 20.71% 7.31% 9.82% 6.30% 45.00 5.00 41.55 -0.55 | 39.85 -2.85 39.00 6.00 41.40 8.60 45.65 -2.65 45.85 1.15 46.209.80 50.25 1.75 52.40 2.60 54.15 0.15 53.95 5.00 0.55 2.85 6.00 8.60 2.65 1.15 9.80 1.75 2.60 0.15 25.00 0.30 8.12 36.00 73.96 7.02 1.32 96.04 3.06 6.76 0.02 12.50% 1.34% 7.70% 13.33% 17.20% 6.16% 2.45% 17.50% 3.37% 4.73% . 52 ww 3 55 | NOV DEC NOV DEC - 3 54 3 3.40 3.40 11.56 0.28% 50.60 52.80 4.45 MAD 26.099.49% MSE MAPE 4.00 MAD 25.05 MSE 8.42% MAPE 5.58 MAD 40.80 MSE 11.89% MAPE 3.74 MAD 23.42 MSE 7.87% MAPE | A | B | KL W AB AC AD AE Exponential Smooth = 0.3) ExponentialSmooth = 0.5) Forecast, Ft+0 Trend, Tt+1 Forecast a=.5, B=. 3 AFt Error ABS Error Error^2 ABS % Error Error ABS Error Error2 ABS % Error Caae of Peppers Error ABS Error Error2 ABS % Error 26 28) 37 Year Month Case of Peppers 1 JAN 1 FEB 1 MAR 1 APR 1 MAY 1 JUN 1 JUL 1 AUG 1 SEP 1 OCT 1 NOV 1 DEC 2 JAN 2 FEB 2 MAR 2 APR 2 MAY 2 JUN 2 JUL 2 AUG 2 SEP 2 OCT 2 NOV 2 DEC 3 JAN 3 FEB 3 MAR 3 APR 3 MAY 3 JUN 3 JUL 3 AUG 3 SEP 3 OCT 3 NOV 3 DEC 3 Year Month Caae of Peppers 1 JAN 1 FEB 1 MAR 1 APR 1 MAY 1 JUN 1 JUL 1 AUG 1 SEP 1 OCT 1 NOV 1 DEC 2 JAN 2 FEB 2 MAR 2 APR 2 MAY 2 JUN 2 JUL 2 AUG 2 SEP 2 OCT 2 NOV 2 DEC 3 JAN 3 FEB 3 MAR 3 APR 3 MAY 3 JUN 3 JUL 3 AUG 3 SEP 3 NOV 3 DEC Month 1 JAN 1 FEB 1 MAR 1 APR 1 MAY 1 JUN 1 JUL 1 AUG 1 SEP 1 OCT 1 NOV 1 DEC 2 JAN 2 FEB 2 MAR 2 APR 2 MAY 2 JUN 2 JUL 2 AUG 2 SEP 2 OCT 2 NOV 2 DEC 3 JAN 3 FEB 3 MAR 3 APR 3 MAY 3 JUN 3 JUL 3 AUG 31 SEP 3 NOV 3 DEC III -= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = 2 49 0.00 3.00 3.10 -1.83 6.721 9.701 37.00 37.00 37.90 38.83 38.28 40.30 43,21 43.15 44.30 47.81 49.07 50.85 51.79 0.00 3.00 3.10 1.83 6.72 9.70 0.21 3.85 11.70 4.19 5.93 3.15 0.00 9.00 9.61 3.35 45.14 94.15 0.04 14.86 136.85| 17.55 35.19 9.94 0.00% 7.50% 7.56% 4.95% 14.93% 19.41% 0.48% 8. 20% 20.89% 8.06% 10.79% 5.84% 37.00 37.00 38.50 39.75 38.38 41.69 45.84 44,42 45.71 50.86 51.43 53.21 53.61 0.00 3.00 2.50 -2.75 6.63 8.31 -2.84 2.58 10.29 1.14 3.571 0.79 0.00 3.00 2.50 2.75 6.63 8.31 2.841 2.58 10.291 1.14 3.57 0.00 9.00 6.25 7.56 43.89 69.10 8.09 6.65 105.86 1.31) 12.76 0.62 0.00% 7.50% 6.10% 7.43% 14.72% 16.63% 6.61% 5.49% 18.379 2.20% 6.50% 1.46% 37.00 37.00 38.50 39.98 38.87 42.03 46.56 45.84 47.05 52.15 53.28 55.15 55.56 37.00 37.00 38.95 40.73) 39.06 43.12 48.68 47.11 48.31 54.56 55.30 57.13 57.07 0.00 3.00 2.05 -3.73 5.94 6.88 -5.68 -0.11 7.69 -2.56 -0.30 -3.13 0.45 0.76 0.20 1.09 2.12 1.27 1.25 2.41 2.02 1.98 1.51 -0.21 0.00 3.00 2.05 3.73 5.94 6.881 5.68 0.11 7.691 2.56) 0.30 3.13 0.00 9.00 4.20 13.93 35.24 47.33 32.26) 0.01) 59.20 6.55) 0.09 9.78 0.00% 7.50% 5.00% 10.09% 13. 19% 13.76% 13.21% 0.23% 13.74% 4.92% 0.55% 5.79% 3.851 11.70 4.19 5.93 3.15 0.79 7 4.45 MAD 31.31 MSE 9.05% MAPE 3.70 MAD 22.59 MSE 7.75% MAPE 3.42 MAD 18.13 MSE .33% MAPE