1. Forecast the share expected returns for the coming 3 months using:

Date	Close
March 1, 2023	123.17
April 1, 2023	127.43
May 1, 2023	118.69
June 1, 2023	121.28
July 1, 2023	117
August 1, 2023	117.33
September 1, 2023	115.4
October 1, 2023	113.42
November 1, 2023	117
December 1, 2023	128.28
January 1, 2024	134.35
February 1, 2024	144.64
March 1, 2024	150.1
April 1, 2024	149.52
April 5, 2024	149.52

1. Moving average with w = 3
2. Simple exponential smoothing with w = 0.7
3. Determine which forecasting method has higher confidence
4. What you can do to improve your forecasting