Forecasting at State University

During the past few years, the legislature has severely reduced funding for State University. In reaction, the administration at State has significantly raised tuition each year for the past five years. A bargain five years ago, State is now considered an expensive state-supported university. Some parents and students now question the value of a State education, and applications for admission have declined. Since a portion of state educational funding is based on a formula tied to enrollments, State has maintained its enrollment levels by going deeper into its applicant pool and accepting less qualified students.

On top of these problems, an increase in the college-age population is expected in this decade. Key members of the state legislature have told the university administration that State will be expected to absorb additional students during this decade. However, because of the economic outlook and the budget situation, State should not expect any funding increases for additional facilities, classrooms, dormitory rooms, or faculty. The university already has a classroom deficit in excess of 25%, and class sizes are above the average of their peer institutions.

The president of the university, Tanisha Lindsey, established several task forces consisting of faculty and administrators to address these problems. These groups made a number of recommendations, including the implementation of total quality management (TQM) practices and more in-depth, focused planning.

Discuss in general terms how forecasting might be used for planning to address these specific problems and the role of forecasting in initiating a TQM approach. Include in your discussion the types of forecasting methods that might be used.