Forecasting is difficult even in times when events are relatively calm. In the event of major change, this exercise becomes even more difficult. Consider the Vacation Cruise industry. The Coronavirus pandemic has created uncertainty and challenges for nearly all business, but it has hit the Cruise industry particularly hard. Put yourself in the position of a manager who is tasked with creating an occupancy forecast for a cruise-line. What approach would you take? Could you use past seasonal information? Is it possible to influence demand in the face of the risks? What contingency plans would you put in place?