Question
Forecasting with the Parsimonious Method and Estimating Share Value Using the ROPI Model Following are the income statement and balance sheet for Cisco Sytems for
Forecasting with the Parsimonious Method and Estimating Share Value Using the ROPI Model Following are the income statement and balance sheet for Cisco Sytems for the year ended July 30, 2016.
Cisco Sytems Consolidated Statements of Income | |||
---|---|---|---|
Years Ended December ($ millions) | July 30, 2016 | July 25, 2015 | |
Revenue | |||
Product | $37,254 | $37,750 | |
Service | 11,993 | 11,411 | |
Total revenue | 49,247 | 49,161 | |
Cost of sales | |||
Product | 14,161 | 15,377 | |
Service | 4,126 | 4,103 | |
Total cost of sales | 18,287 | 19,480 | |
Gross margin | 30,960 | 29,681 | |
Operating expenses | |||
Research and development | 6,296 | 6,207 | |
Sales and marketing | 9,619 | 9,821 | |
General and administrative | 1,814 | 2,040 | |
Amortization of purchased intangible assets | 303 | 359 | |
Restructuring and other charges | 268 | 484 | |
Total operating expenses | 18,300 | 18,911 | |
Operating income | 12,660 | 10,770 | |
Interest income | 1,005 | 769 | |
Interest expense | (676) | (566) | |
Other income (loss), net | (69) | 228 | |
Interest and other income (loss), net | 260 | 431 | |
Income before provision for income taxes | 12,920 | 11,201 | |
Provision for income taxes | 2,181 | 2,220 | |
Net income | $10,739 | $8,981 |
Cisco Sytems Inc. Consolidated Balance Sheets | ||
---|---|---|
In millions, except par value | July 30, 2016 | July 25, 2015 |
Assets | ||
Current assets | ||
Cash and cash equivalents | $7,631 | $6,877 |
Investments | 58,125 | 53,539 |
Accounts receivable, net of allowance for doubtful accounts of $249 at July 30, 2016 and $302 at July 25, 2015 | 5,847 | 5,344 |
Inventories | 1,217 | 1,627 |
Financing receivables, net | 4,272 | 4,491 |
Other current assets | 1,627 | 1,490 |
Total current assets | 78,719 | 73,368 |
Property and equipment, net | 3,506 | 3,332 |
Financing receivables, net | 4,158 | 3,858 |
Goodwill | 26,625 | 24,469 |
Purchased intangible assets, net | 2,501 | 2,376 |
Deferred tax assets | 4,299 | 4,454 |
Other assets | 1,844 | 1,516 |
Total assets | $121,652 | $113,373 |
Liabilities | ||
Current liabilities | ||
Short-term debt | $4,160 | $3,897 |
Accounts payable | 1,056 | 1,104 |
Income taxes payable | 517 | 62 |
Accrued compensation | 2,951 | 3,049 |
Deferred revenue | 10,155 | 9,824 |
Other current liabilities | 6,072 | 5,476 |
Total current liabilities | 24,911 | 23,412 |
Long-term debt | 24,483 | 21,457 |
Income taxes payable | 925 | 1,876 |
Deferred revenue | 6,317 | 5,359 |
Other long-term liabilities | 1,431 | 1,562 |
Total liabilities | 58,067 | 53,666 |
Cisco shareholders' equity Preferred stock, no par value: 5 shaes authorized; none issued and outstanding | -- | -- |
Common stock and additional paid-in capital, $0.001 par value: 20,000 shares authorized; 5,029 and 5,085 shares issued and outstanding at July 30, 2016 and July 25, 2015, respectively | 44,516 | 43,592 |
Retained earnings | 19,396 | 16,045 |
Accumulated other comprehensive income (loss) | (326) | 61 |
Total Cisco shareholders' equity | 63,586 | 59,698 |
Noncontrolling interests | (1) | 9 |
Total equity | 63,585 | 59,707 |
Total liabilities and equity | $121,652 | $113,373 |
(a) Compute net operating assets (NOA) for 2016. (b) Compute net operating profit after tax (NOPAT) for 2016, assuming a federal and state statutory tax rate of 37%.(Round your answer to the nearest whole number.) (c) Forecast Cisco's sales, NOPAT, and NOA for years 2017 through 2020 and the terminal period using the following assumptions:
Sales growth 2017 | 1% |
Sales growth 2018-2020 | 2% |
Terminal growth | 1% |
Net operating profit margin | 21.5% |
Net operating asset turnover | 1.86 |
CSCO | Reported | Forecast Horizon | Terminal | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
($ millions) | 2016 | 2017 Est. | 2018 Est. | 2019 Est. | 2020 Est. | Period |
Sales (rounded two decimal places) | Answer Incorrect Mark 0.00 out of 1.00 | Answer Incorrect Mark 0.00 out of 1.00 | Answer Incorrect Mark 0.00 out of 1.00 | Answer Incorrect Mark 0.00 out of 1.00 | Answer Incorrect Mark 0.00 out of 1.00 | Answer Incorrect Mark 0.00 out of 1.00 |
Sales (rounded nearest whole number) | Answer Incorrect Mark 0.00 out of 1.00 | Answer Incorrect Mark 0.00 out of 1.00 | Answer Incorrect Mark 0.00 out of 1.00 | Answer Incorrect Mark 0.00 out of 1.00 | Answer Incorrect Mark 0.00 out of 1.00 | Answer Incorrect Mark 0.00 out of 1.00 |
NOPAT (rounded nearest whole number)* | Answer Incorrect Mark 0.00 out of 1.00 | Answer Incorrect Mark 0.00 out of 1.00 | Answer Incorrect Mark 0.00 out of 1.00 | Answer Incorrect Mark 0.00 out of 1.00 | Answer Incorrect Mark 0.00 out of 1.00 | Answer Incorrect Mark 0.00 out of 1.00 |
NOA (rounded nearest whole number)* | Answer Incorrect Mark 0.00 out of 1.00 | Answer Incorrect Mark 0.00 out of 1.00 | Answer Incorrect Mark 0.00 out of 1.00 | Answer Incorrect Mark 0.00 out of 1.00 | Answer Incorrect Mark 0.00 out of 1.00 | Answer Incorrect Mark 0.00 out of 1.00 |
* Use sales rounded to nearest whole number for this calculation.
(d) Estimate the value of a share of Cisco common stock using the residual operating income (ROPI) model as of July, 30, 2016; assume a discount rate (WACC) of 10%, common shares outstanding of 5,029 million, and net nonoperating obligations (NNO) of $(37,113) million (NNO is negative which means that Cisco has net nonoperating investments).
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Use your rounded answers for subsequent calculations.
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Do not use negative signs with any of your answers below.
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CSCO | Reported | Forecast Horizon | Terminal | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
($ millions) | 2016 | 2017 Est. | 2018 Est. | 2019 Est. | 2020 Est. | Period |
ROPI Model | ||||||
ROPI [NOPAT - (NOA beg x WACC)] | (rounded to nearest whole number) | Answer Incorrect Mark 0.00 out of 1.00 | Answer Incorrect Mark 0.00 out of 1.00 | Answer Incorrect Mark 0.00 out of 1.00 | Answer Incorrect Mark 0.00 out of 1.00 | Answer Incorrect Mark 0.00 out of 1.00 |
Discount factor | (rounded to 5 decimal places) | Answer Incorrect Mark 0.00 out of 1.00 | Answer Incorrect Mark 0.00 out of 1.00 | Answer Incorrect Mark 0.00 out of 1.00 | Answer Incorrect Mark 0.00 out of 1.00 | |
Present value of horizon ROPI | (rounded to nearest whole number) | Answer Incorrect Mark 0.00 out of 1.00 | Answer Incorrect Mark 0.00 out of 1.00 | Answer Incorrect Mark 0.00 out of 1.00 | Answer Incorrect Mark 0.00 out of 1.00 | |
Cumulative present value of horizon ROPI | Answer Incorrect Mark 0.00 out of 1.00 | (rounded to nearest whole number) | ||||
Present value of terminal ROPI | Answer Incorrect Mark 0.00 out of 1.00 | (rounded to nearest whole number) | ||||
NOA | Answer Incorrect Mark 0.00 out of 1.00 | (rounded to nearest whole number) | ||||
Total firm value | Answer Incorrect Mark 0.00 out of 1.00 | (rounded to nearest whole number) | ||||
NNO | Answer Incorrect Mark 0.00 out of 1.00 | |||||
NCI | Answer Incorrect Mark 0.00 out of 1.00 | |||||
Firm equity value | Answer Incorrect Mark 0.00 out of 1.00 | (rounded to nearest whole number) | ||||
Shares outstanding (millions) | Answer Incorrect Mark 0.00 out of 1.00 | (rounded to nearest whole number) | ||||
Stock value per share | Answer Incorrect Mark 0.00 out of 1.00 | (rounded to two decimal places) |
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