Four analysts cover the stock of Fluorine Chemical. One forecasts a 4% return for the coming year. The second expects the return to be -5%. The third predicts a return 11%. The fourth expects 2% return in the coming year. You are relatively confident that the return will be positive but not large, so you arbitrarily assign probabilities of being correct of 26%, 5%, 18% and 51%, respectively, to the analysts forecasts. Given these probabilities, what is Fluorine Chemical's expected return for the coming year?