From Decision Analysis course:

Company BVEX, headquartered in Toronto, Canada, operates seven double-trailer trucks for commercial long-distance hauling of cattle in Ontario, Quebec, Manitoba, New York, Vermont, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Maine. Each truck averages one completed load per week, picking up the cattle from various farms across the aforementioned states and provinces. The cattle are driven to a large farm near Milton, Ontario. BVEX maintains an office in each of the 8 states and provinces it operates in. Staffing in each of these offices includes a manager, a secretary and a veterinarian. BVEX's CEO is seriously considering dropping New Jersey as source of business. Last year, only 25 truckloads of cattle were handled in that state. BVEX's CEO wants to determine if it is profitable to retain an office and do business in New Jersey's farms. To analyze the New Jersey market, BVEX's CEO gathers data on last year's cattle shipments and revenues. Each of the 25 trucks that were loaded in New Jersey last year carried between 26 and 50 cows. The income generated per cow differed significantly (ranging from 50 to 80 dollars) based on the weight of the cows to be shipped. (See the table below for details.) BVEX's CEO decided that if she were to simulate 25 truckloads out of New Jersey, she could determine if it would be profitable to continue to operate there next year. She estimates that each shipment to the Milton farm costs $900, including driver, gasoline, and truck expenses; other cargo and loading and unloading costs average $120 per shipment. In addition, it costs $41,000 per year to operate the Italian office, including salaries and indirect overhead costs from the home office in Toronto. Probability Revenue per Cow Probability Number of Cows Loaded 26-30 (28) 31-35 (33) 36-40 (38) 41-45 (43) 46-50 (48) $50 $60 0.12 0.16 0.24 0.36 0.12 1.00 $70 $80 0.20 0.44 0.28 0.08 1.00 Here is the crucial question that the BVEX's CEO wants to address: Will the shipments of cattle out of New Jersey next year generate enough revenues to cover BVEX costs there