From the chart, estimate (roughly) the number of transistors per IC in 2018. Using your estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be in 2040? In some applications, the variable being studied increases so quickly ("exponentially") that a regular graph isn't informative. There, a regular graph would show data close to 0 and then a sudden spike at the very end. Instead, for these applications, we often use logarithmic scales. We replace the y-axis tick marks of 1, 2, 3, 4, etc. with y-axis tick marks of 101 = 10, 102 = 100, 103 = 1000, 104 = 10000, etc. In other words, the logarithms of the new tick marks are equally spaced. Technology is one area where progress is extraordinarily rapid. Moore's Law states that the progress of technology (measured in different ways) doubles every 2 years. A common example counts the number of transitors per integrated circuit. A regular y-axis scale is appropriate when a trend is linear, i.e. 100 transistors, 200 transistors, 300 transistors, 400 transistors, etc. However, technology actually increased at a much quicker pace such as 100 transistors,.1,000 transistors, 10,000 transistors, 100,000 transistors, etc. The following is a plot of the number of transistors per integrated circuit over the period 1971 - 2008 taken from https://ourworldindata.org/technological-progress (that site contains a lot of data, not just for technology). At first, this graph seems to show a steady progression until you look carefully at the y-axis ... it's not linear. From the graph, it seems that from 1971 to 1981 the number of transistors went from about 1,000 to 40,000. Moore's Law predicts that in 10 years, it would double 5 times, i.e. go from 1,000 to 32,000, and the actual values (using very rough estimates) seem to support this. A scatter plot with years as the x-axis and the log of the number of transistors as the y axis. The points on the scatter plot lie roughly on a line. The following is the same plot but with the common logarithm of the y-axis shown. You can see that log(y) goes up uniformly. A scatter plot with years as the x-axis and the log of the number of transistors as the y axis (with the log explicitly calculated). The points on the scatter plot lie roughly on a line. Questions to be answered in your Brightspace Discussion: Part a: The number of transistors per IC in 1972 seems to be about 4,000 (a rough estimate by eye). Using this estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be 20 years later, in 1992?Prediction = Part b: From the chart, estimate (roughly) the number of transistors per IC in 2018. Using your estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be in 2040? Part c: Do you think that your prediction in Part b is believable? Why or why not?

Moore's Law - The number of transistors on integrated circuit chips (1971-2018) Our World Moore's law describes the empirical regularity that the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every two years. in Data This advancement is important as other aspects of technological progress - such as processing speed or the price of electronic products - are linked to Moore's law. 50,000,000,000 72-core Xeon Pili Centriq 2400 SPARG MY IBM 213 Storage Controller 10,000,000,000 B-core Xeon Haswel-ES. Xbox One main SOC paragon Box/SCX8180 5,000,000,000 61-gone Xeon Pi 2 8 8 HiS icon Kirin 960 + Apple A 12 Bionic 8-core Xcon Nichale hakem-EX 1,000,000,000 Pentium D Preslor, POWERS g . Quad core . GPU Core 17 Have A7 (qual-core ARMS4 "mobile Soc 500,000,000 "5 M reached itanium 2 Madison BLO Pentium 4 Presc Core 2 Due Wolldale 3M 100,000,000 enturn 4 Cedar Mi AND KB pentium & Prescott 50,000,000 Pentium 4 No Two ontium 4 Wilamette @ Pensum I Tualatin Pentium II Mobile Doing AND K7 Pentium Ill Coppermine PARM Cortex-40 Transistor count 10,000,000 AND & OptimaYum 5,000,000 MOK'S 1,000,000 Intel 80486 14000 500,000 Intel 80386 6 9ARM3 100,000 50,000 Qintel 80186 Intel ace6 0 @ intel PARM 2 10,000 TMS 1000 2109 250 NCAUTE 5,000 8868 8578 Technology 1,000 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Data source: Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_count) The data visualization is available at OurWorldinData.org. There you find more visualizations and research on this topic. Licensed under CC-BY-SA by the author Max Roser. The following is the same plot but with the common logarithm of the y-axis shown. You can see that log(y) goes up uniformly. log(y) Moore's Law - The number of transistors on integrated circuit chips (1971-2018) Moore's law describes the empirical regularity that the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every two years. in D This advancement is important as other aspects of technological progress - such as processing speed or the price of electronic products - are 11 linked to Moore's law. 50,000,000,000 72-gore Xeon Phi Contriq 2100 -GC2 PU IBM 213 Storage Controller 10 10,000,000,000 8-core Xeon Haswell-ES gra Xavier Sec 5,000,000,000 Xbox One main Soc 12 COME POWER B-core Xeon Nehalem Dual-core Firm 9 1,000,000,000 Pentium D Presier Apple A7 (dual-core ARM64 'mobile SoC" 500,000,000 17 (Quad) arium 2 Madison SO He 606 Warare 2ML3 Itanium 2ND Simi Pentium 4 Fresco AMD KB Pentium 4 Prescott ontium 4 Cedar Mil 00 100,000,000 50,000,000 Funthan 4 Northwood@ @-Barton Pentium 4 Willamette o Pentium I Mobile Dixono Pentium II Tualatin AND KT PARM Cortex-A9 AND K Transistor count 10,000,000 5,000,000 Pentium Prog Intel 80486 1,000,000 500,000 overs 32-bi Intel BO3860 50 9ARM 3 Motorcia 68020 100,000 PES Y 50,000 intel 80186 Intel 80860 Intel 8088 9 AM2 10,000 MS 1000 Ziog zup NO2016 5,000 Intel 8005 65% Technology 3 1,000 1970 1972 1974 1976 1976 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Data source: Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_count) The data visualization is available at OurWorldinData.org. There you find more visualizations and research on this topic. Licensed under CC-BY-SA by the author Max Questions to be answered in your Brightspace Discussion: Part a: The number of transistors per IC in 1972 seems to be about 4,000 (a rough estimate by eye). Using this estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be 20 years later, in 1992? Prediction = Number Part b: From the chart, estimate (roughly) the number of transistors per IC in 2018. Using your estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be in 2040? Part c: Do you think that your prediction in Part b is believable? Why or why not