From the chart, estimate (roughly) the number of transistors per IC in 2014. Using your estimate andMoore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be in2040?

In some applications, the variable being studied increases so quickly ("exponentially") that a regular graph isn't informative. There, a regular graph would show data close to 0 and then a sudden spike at the very end. Instead, for these applications, we often use logarithmic scales. We replace the y-axis tick marks of 1, 2, 3, 4, etc.with y-axis tick marks of 10¹=10, 10²=100, 10³=1000, 10⁴=10000, etc. In other words, the logarithms of the new tick marks are equally spaced.

Technology is one areawhere progress is extraordinarily rapid. Moore's Law states that the progress of technology (measured in different ways) doubles every 2 years. A common example counts the number of transitors per integrated circuit. A regular y-axis scale is appropriate when a trend is linear, i.e. 100 transistors, 200 transistors, 300 transistors, 400 transistors, etc. However, technology actually increased at a much quicker pace such as 100 transistors,.1,000 transistors, 10,000 transistors, 100,000 transistors,etc.

The following is a plot of the number of transistors per integrated circuit over the period 1971 - 2008 takenfromhttps://ourworldindata.org/technological-progress(that site contains a lot of data, not just for technology). At first, this graph seems to show a steady progression until you look carefully at the y-axis ... it's not linear. Fromthe graph, it seems that from 1971 to 1981 the number of transistors went from about 1,000 to 40,000. Moore's Law predicts that in 10 years, it would double 5 times, i.e. go from 1,000 to 32,000, and the actual values (using very rough estimates) seemto support this.

The following is the same plot but with the common logarithm of the y-axis shown. You can see that log(y) goes up uniformly.

Questions to be answered in your Brightspace Discussion:

Part a: The number of transistors per IC in 1972 seems to be about 4,000 (a rough estimate by eye). Using this estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be 20 years later, in 1992?

Prediction =

Part b: From the chart, estimate (roughly) the number of transistors per IC in 2014. Using your estimate andMoore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be in2040?

Part c: Do you think that your prediction in Part b is believable? Why or why not?

log(y) Moore's Law - The number of transistors on integrated circuit chips (1971-2018) Our World Moore's law describes the empirical regularity that the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every two years. in Data This advancement is important as other aspects of technological progress - such as processing speed or the price of electronic products - are linked to Moore's law. 11 50,000,000,000 72-core Xeon Phi Centriq 2400 SPARC M7 GC2 IPU 832-core AMD Epyc IBM z13 Storage Controller. Apple A12X Bionic 10 10,000,000,000 18-core Xeon Haswell-E5 Tegra Xavier SoC Xbox One main SoC Qualcomm Snapdragon 8cx/SCX8180 5,000,000,000 61-core Xeon Phi @ g HiSilicon Kirin 980 + Apple A12 Bionic 12-core POWERS `HiSilicon Kirin 710 8-core Xeon Nehalem-EX Broadwell-E Six-core Xeon 7400 mm Snapdragon 685 Dual-core Itanium 20 is Core 17 Broadwell-U Quad-core + GPU GT2 Core 17 Skylake K 9 1,000,000,000 Pentium D Presler POWER6 Quad-core + GPU Core 17 Haswell Itanium 2 with Apple A7 (dual-core ARM64 "mobile SoC" 500,000,000 Core 17 (Quad) Itanium 2 Madison 6MQ AMD K10 quad-core 2M L3 Pentium D Smithfield Core 2 Duo Conroe Itanium 2 Mckinley Core 2 Duo Wolfdale 3M Pentium 4 Prescott-2MO Core 2 Duo Allendale `Pentium 4 Cedar Mill 8 100,000,000 AMD K89 Pentium 4 Prescott 50,000,000 Pentium 4 Northwood Barton Pentium 4 Willamette Atom Pentium III Tualatin Pentium II Mobile Dixon AMD K7 . Pentium III Coppermine ARM Cortex-A9 AMD K6-III 7 Transistor count 10,000,000 AMD K60 Pentium Ill Katmai 5,000,000 Pentium Pro Klamath Pentium AMD K5 CA-110 Intel 80486 6 24000 1,000,000 500,000 TI Explorer's 32-bit Lisp machine chip ARM700 Intel 803860 19600 ARM 3 Motorola 68020 100,000 Motorola Intel 80286 MultiTitan 9TDMI 50,000 Intel 80186 Intel 80869 @ Intel 8088 PARM 2 CARM 1 ARM 6 VDC Motorola 35C816 NO 4 10,000 TMS 1000 Zilog Z80 NC4016 RCA 1802 5,000 Intel 8085 Intel 8008 Intel 8080 MOS Moto 40S Technology forola 650 Intel 400 3 1,000 1970 19 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 200 2004 2006 2008 2010 201 2014 2016 2018 Data source: Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_count) The data visualization is available at OurWorldinData.org. There you find more visualizations and research on this topic. Licensed under CC-BY-SA by the author Max Roser.Moore's Law: The number of transistors on microchips doubles every two years Our World Moore's law describes the empirical regularity that the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every two years. in Data This advancement is important for other aspects of technological progress in computing - such as processing speed or the price of computers. Transistor count 50,000,000,000 GC2 IPU AMD Epyc Rome 72-core Xeon Phi Centriq 2400 AWS Graviton2 SPARC M7 IBM z13 Storage Controlle 32-core AMD Epyc. 10,000,000,000 Apple A12X Bionic 18-core Xeon Haswell-E5 HiSilicon Kirin 990 5G 5,000,000,000 Xbox One main Soc Apple A13 (iPhone 11 Pro) 61-core-Xeon Phi 8 AMD. Ryzen 7 3700X 12-core POWER HiSilicon Kirin 710 8-core Xeon Nehalem-EX 10-core Core 17 Broadwell-E Six-core Xeon /400 Dual-core Itanium 2 -core + GPU Iris Core 17 Broadwell-U 1,000,000,000 Quad-core + GPU GT2 Core i7 Skylake K Pentium D. Presler POWER Quad-core.+ GPU Core 17. Haswell 500,000,000 Itarum 2 with Apple A7 (dual-core ARM64 "mobile Soc") Core i7 (Quad) Itanium 2 Madison 6M Core 2 Duo Wolfdale Pentium D Smithfield Itanium 2 Mckinley Duo Conroe Pentium 4 Prescott-2M Core 2 Duo Wolfdale 3M Core 2 Duo Allendale 100,000,000 `Pentium 4 Cedar Mill -- AMD K89 Pentium 4 Prescott 50,000,000 Pentium 4 Northwood Do Barton Pentium 4 Willamette Atom Pentium II Mobile Dixon Pentium III Tualatin AMD K7 Pentium III Coppermine ARM Cortex-A9 10,000,000 AMD K6-11 - AMD Ko Pentium Ill Katmai 5,000,000 Pentium II Deschutes Pentium Pro-Kiamath Pentium K5 SA-110 1,000,000 Intel 8048% R4000 500,000 T Explorer's 32-bit Lisp machine chip- ARM 1700 Intel 80386 ARM 3 Motorola 68020 100,000 DEC WRL Motorola -Intel-80286 50,000 OTOMI Intel 80186- Intel 80869 @ Intel 8088 WARM 2 CARM 1 ARM 6 10,000 Motorola 65C816 -TMS 1000 Zilog Z80 NC4016 O 5,000 6520 RCA 1802 Intel 808 1 8085 Intel 8008 Motoro 6806 6503 Intel 4004 1,000 OL61 1972 1261 1976 8461 0861 1982 1984 986T 88 0667 1661 996 866T 200 2002 006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 020 Data source: Wikipedia (wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_count) Year in which the microchip was first introduced OurWorldinData.org - Research and data to make progress against the world's largest problems Licensed under CC-BY by the authors Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser