\fStock Price Trend Adjusted Forecast ALPHA BETA MAD w Date Close Average Trend Forecast 1 Abs(Et) Dec 05 38.75 Dec 06 38.84 $ 38.84 $ 0.09 Average: A, = a*D, + (1-a)*(F.) Dec 07 38.89 38.93 LO Dec 10 39.76 10 Dec 11 39.56 Trend: T, = B*( At - At 1) + (1- B)*Tt-1 11 Dec 12 39.46 12 Dec 13 39.29 Adding these together gives the forecast for the next 13 Dec 14 39.04 period: 14 Dec 17 38.49 F1+1 = At + T. 15 Dec 18 38.13 16 Dec 19 37.47 Initialize: Az = D2, T2 = D2 - D1 17 Dec 20 37.28 18 Dec 21 37.50 19 Dec 24 37.49 20 Dec 25 37.49 21 Dec 26 37.49 22 Dec 27 37.00 23 Dec 28 36.95 24 Dec 31 36.64 25 Jan 01 36.64 26 Jan 02 37.05 27 Jan 03 36.79 28 Jan 04 36.39 29 Jan 07 36.30 30 Jan 08 35.56 31 Jan 09 36.42 32 Jan 10