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fter analyzing the current market conditions, you are worried that your analysis hasn't adequately analyzed the risk of the project. You know that betas are

fter analyzing the current market conditions, you are worried that your analysis hasn't adequately analyzed the risk of the project. You know that betas are not stable over time; they are often different in recessions and economic expansions. So you would like to base your analysis on the actual risk of the project, and you would like to more closely consider some factors that may vary over time. First, you know that it is very unlikely that your growth rates will be the same every year over the life of the project. You realize that there will be a component of your sales that will be dependent on how the economy in general is performing, a component that will depend on how your bakery is received in the beginning, and a component that will be completely random. Second, you know that your variable costs are unlikely to be 30% of sales each year as well. Your two biggest costs come from the cost of energy used to run the bakery, as well as the price of ingredients used in baking your product. You expect that both of these costs will be affected by the state of the economy, as well

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