Gilroys Casting Company

Gilroys Casting Company, which has historically specialized in aluminum casting is considering adding a new bronze casting line to its production facility. Over the past several years the artistic community in Park City and along the Wasatch front has significantly increased and the company has received an increasing number of requests to do bronze castings.

The casting line would be set up in unused space in Gilroys main plant. The equipment would cost approximately $200,000, plus another $10,000 for shipping and an additional $30,000 for installation. The equipment has an economic life of 5 years, and would be depreciated to zero using straight line depreciation. But Mr. Gilroy believes the equipment will last much longer than 5 years. He expects it to last eight years, so this is an eight year project. The machinery is expected to have a salvage value of $25,000.

It is expected that the new line would generate new product sales of 500 units in the first year and will increase by 250 units per year until a volume of 1,250 units is reached. The variable cost of production is $100 per unit in the first year. Each unit can be sold for $200. The sales price and cost are expected to increase by 3% per year due to inflation. Further, to handle the new line, the firms net working capital would have to increase by an amount equal to 12% of revenue and this investment needs to be in place at the beginning of each year. The firms tax rate is 40%, and its overall weighted average cost of capital is 12%.

1. Assume that Sidney Johnson is confident of her estimates of all the variables that affect the projects cash flows except unit sales and sales price. If product acceptance is poor, unit sales would be only 75% of the forecast and the unit price would only be $160; a strong consumer response would produce sales of 125% of the forecast units and a unit price of $240. Sidney believes that there is a 25% chance of poor acceptance, a 25% chance of excellent acceptance, and a 50% chance of average acceptance (the base case).

What is the worst-case, best-case, and expected NPV?