Given the following historical demand, what is the naive forecast for

Week $5?$

Week $1=5000$

Week $2=4000$

Week $3=3000$

Week $4=2000$

Week $5=$ Predict using the na$$ve forecast

Last Period Forecast:

$F_{t+1}=D_t$

where $F_{t+1}=$ forecast for the next period, $t+1$

and $D_t=$ demand for the current period, $t$

Moving Average

Forecast

Weighted Moving Average

Forecast

$F_{t+1}=\frac{{\displaystyle \underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{}}}{D}_{t+1-i}}{n},F_{t+1}={\displaystyle \underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{}}}{W}_{t+1-i}{D}_{t+1-i}$

where $F_{t+1}=$ forecast for the next period, $t+1$

and $D_{t+1-i}=$ actual demand for the period, $t+1-i$

and $n=$ number of most recent demand observations used in the forecast and $W_{t+1-i}=$ weight assigned to the demand in period, $t+1-i$