- Given the information available and your knowledge of different forecasting techniques, recommend a specific forecasting technique for this study. Consider the advantages and disadvantages of your preferred technique, and identify what additional information, if any, Mr. Abel would need.
- Develop forecasts for patient, staffing, and budget levels for next year.
Oak Hollow Medical Evaluation Center CASE 14.1 Oak Hollow Medical Evaluation Center is a nonprofit agency requirements, and operating expenses as part of his effort to offering multidisciplinary diagnostic services to study children attract funding. To this end, the director has approached an with disabilities or developmental delays. The center can test operations management professor at the local university for each patient for physical, psychological, or social problems. assistance in preparing a patient, staffing, and budget forecast Fees for services are based on an ability-to-pay schedule. for the coming year. The professor has asked you to aid her in The evaluation center exists in a highly competitive envi- this project. Tables 14.8 through 14.11 give you some perti- ronment. Many public-spirited organizations are competing nent information. for shrinking funds, and many groups such as private physi- cians, private and school psychologists, and social service Assignments organizations also are "competing" for the same patients. As a 1. Given the information available and your knowledge of dif- result of this situation, the center finds itself in an increasingly ferent forecasting techniques, recommend a specific fore- vulnerable financial position. casting technique for this study. Consider the advantages Mr. Abel, the director of the center, is becoming increas and disadvantages of your preferred technique, and identify ingly concerned with the center's ability to attract adequate what additional information, if any, Mr. Abel would need. funding and serve community needs. Mr. Abel now must 2. Develop forecasts for patient, staffing, and budget levels for develop an accurate estimate of the future patient load, staffing next year . TABLE 14.8 Annual Number of Patient Tests Performed* Test 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Physical exam 390 468 509 490 582 Speech and hearing screening 102 124 180 148 204 Psychological testing 168 312 376 386 437 Activate Social-worker interview 106 188 184 222 2440 to Sett *All entering patients are given a physical examination. Patients then are scheduled for additional testing deemed appropriate. TABLE 14.9 Annual Expenses Area 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Physical and neurological exams $18,200 $24,960 $ 32,760 $ 31,500 41,600 Speech and hearing tests 2,040 2,074 3,960 3,950 4,850 Psychological testing 6,720 2,480 16,450 16,870 20,202 Social-worker interview 3,320 3,948 4,416 5,550 7,592 Sublolal $30,280 $43,462 $ 57,586 57,870 74,244 Other expenses 46,559 48,887 51,820 55,447 59,883 Total $76,839 $92,349 $109,406 $113,317 $134,127 TABLE 14.10 Monthly Patient Demand, September 2011-December 2012 Speech and Hearing Psychological Social-Worker Physical Exam Tests Testing Interview 2011 September 54 16 42 24 October 67 21 54 31 November 74 48 33 December 29 23 13 Activa TABLE 14.10 (Continued) Speech and Hearing Psychological Social-Worker Physical Exam Tests Testing Interview 2012 January 58 20 44 24 February 52 18 39 22 March 47 16 35 20 April 41 14 31 May 35 12 26 15 June 29 10 22 12 July 23 8 17 10 August 29 10 22 12 September 65 24 48 27 October 81 29 61 34 November 87 66 37 December 25 26 14 TABLE 14.11 Current Staffing Levels* Physicians 2 part-time, 18 hours per week Speech and hearing clinician 1 part-time, 20 hours per week Psychologists 1 full-time, 38 hours per week 1 part-time, 16 hours per week Social worker 1 full-time, 40 hours per week Activate Win *The Oak Hollow Medical Evaluation Center operates on a 50-week year. Go to Settings to
