Golf Course Sensors is developing and commercializing a high-tech robotic “groundskeeper” for golf course. The company has a working prototype, but is developing its final product for market. The go-to- market decision will likely be made in 18 months. This is the point where the entrepreneurial team will need to decide to “go-all-in” and invest in production, distribution, marketing... – all the things that go with running a business.

At the go-to-market decision, the company will need to invest $100M at that time to build the company necessary to commercialize the concept. But of course, much will be learned between today and the date the decision needs to be made. And, the company could decide to “pull the plug” at any point between then and now.

Based on empirical evidence, if successful, the business that will be created is worth approximately $90M today. Businesses of this type and stage of development have a standard deviation of returns of approx., 50%. If the risk-free rate is 2.0%, what is this opportunity worth?