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Grand River is part of an eight-team chess league. Each match consists of a Chess challenge, where each member of one chess team goes head-to-head

Grand River is part of an eight-team chess league. Each match consists of a Chess challenge, where each member of one chess team goes head-to-head with a member of the other chess team scoring one point for their team if they win. The pairings are decided randomly. The team with the most points after everyone has competed wins the match.

Due to facility issues, teams play each other in "double-headers". That is, each time one team faces another team, they play each other in two matches (one right after the other). The probability that Grand River wins the first match of a double-header against any team is 0.50. However, if Grand River wins their first match of a double-header, the probability that they win their second match increases by 25%. If they lose their first match of a double-header, the probability that they win their second match decreases by 20%.

Teams in this league play each other in exactly two double-headers each, for a total of 16 double-headers. Assuming each double-header is independent, what is the probability (rounded to 3 decimal places) that Grand River will lose exactly 1 game of the doubleheader in at least 2 of the 16 double- headers?

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