Hello everyone. I hope that you noticed from the last discussion that the larger the number of data points, the smaller the standard error was. This is an example of the Law of Large numbers.

This week we start to use inferential statistics. Chapter 8 is a general introduction to Hypothesis testing based on probability. Read about Type I and Type 2 errors. Most of the time we try to minimize Type 1 errors when we Hypothesis test. The values ofwhich is the area in the tails of the Normal Distribution curve can also be thought of as theprobability of making a Type 1 error.Type 1 error is rejecting a True null Hypothesis.

Example:A researcher claims this medicine works. This would be the null hypothesis Ho. Suppose you reject that claim. Then find out that it does work. You have made a Type 1 error by saying the researcher's claim is NOT true when in fact it is.

Discussion this week: Make up a statement like the one below. You can't use my statement or anyone else's statement.

The Null Hypothesis is Ho :Boys are stupid. If you make a Type 1, a) what conclusion would you make and b) what is really true.

In this example, a Type 1 error would mean we reject the Hypothesis when in fact it is true. So we would:

a) concludeBoys are notstupid.

b) Since we made a Type 1 error, the original is actually true so in realityBoys arestupidis what is true.

You can make up any silly or not silly thing you want. Just write the statement, answer a) and b).