Question
Here are the actual tabulated demands for an item for a nine-month period (January through September). Your supervisor wants to test two forecasting methods to
Here are the actual tabulated demands for an item for a nine-month period (January through September). Your supervisor wants to test two forecasting methods to see which method was better over this period.
MONTH | ACTUAL | ||
January | 124 | ||
February | 124 | ||
March | 152 | ||
April | 172 | ||
May | 156 | ||
June | 176 | ||
July | 144 | ||
August | 128 | ||
September | 142 | ||
a. Forecast April through September using a three-month moving average. (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.)
b. Use simple exponential smoothing with an alpha of 0.30 to estimate April through September, using the average of January through March as the initial forecast for April. (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.)
Hint: Forecast for April is (Jan + Feb + Mar)/3. Use this information to forecast the rest of the months through September.
c-1. Calculate MAD for each method. (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.)
Hint: MAD should be calculated based on actual and forecasted demands from April to September (6 months).
c-2. Use MAD to decide which method produced the better forecast over the six-month period.
Is the answer -Exponential smoothing.Or Three-month moving average.?
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