1. Heuristics and biases

Explain the concept of judgmental "heuristics and biases" as conceived by Tversky and Kahneman.

1. What is an heuristic and what is a bias? How do they differ? What are their respective roles in human cognition of probabilities?
2. What kinds of heuristics do humans use to think through complex problems? Give three examples of heuristics and how they each affect judgment.
3. If you are trying to elicit an expert's judgment about the probability of some rare event happening that might affect your project, how might you use the concept of cognitive biases when you employ the expert's answers?