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Heuristics and biases We know that all people exhibit biases in assigning probabilities to project uncertainties. Over the long run, the probabilities they assign diverge
Heuristics and biases
We know that all people exhibit biases in assigning probabilities to project uncertainties. Over the long run, the probabilities they assign diverge from the frequencies we observe in the world.
a. What are five (5) ways that experts' quantified probability assignments might systematically diverge from real-world frequencies?
b. What might you as PM do to correct and to calibrate for these biases?
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