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cricau shuth Columbia broke' or Fexas while returning from a in space on Fichruan' 1.2003. of the seren estronans abourd. Space Shuttle Challenger Mission 51-L Launch Decision On January 28, 1986, the Space Shuttle Challenger was launched for the last time. The decision to launch the Challenger was not simple. Certainly no one dreamed that the Shuttle would explode less than two minutes after lift-off. Much has been said and written about the decision to launch. Was the decision to launch correct? How was the decision made? Could anyone have foreseen the subsequent explosion? Should the decision-making procedure have been modified? These questions are examined in this case study. Background The Space Shuttle: The Space Shutte is the most complicated vehicle ever constructed. Its complexily dwarfs any previous project ever attempted, Including the Apollo project. The Apollo project possessed a very specific goal, to send men to the moon. The Space Shutte program has a wide variety of goals, some of which conflict. The attempt to satisfy conficting goals is one of the chief roots of difficully with the design of the Space Shuttle. Originally, the design was to be only a part of NASA's overall manned space transportation system, but because of politics and budget cuts, it was transformed from an integral component of a system to the sole component of the manned space program. The Space Shuttle was the first attempt to produce a truly reusable spacecraft. All previous spacecraft were designed to fly only a single mission. In the late 1960 "s, NASA envisioned a vehicle which could be used repeatedly, thus reducing both the engineering cost and hardware costs. However, resulting vehicle was not as envisioned. It had severe design flaws, one of which caused the loss of the Challenger. NASA Planning and Politics: NASA's post-Apollo plans for the continued manned exploration of space rested on a threo legged triad. The first leg was a reusable space transportation system, the Space Shuttle, which could transport men and cargo to low earth orbit (LEO) and then land back on Earth to prepare for another mission. The second leg was a manned orbiting space station which would be resupplied by the Shuttle and would serve as both a transfer point for activities further from Earth and as a scientific and manufacturing platform. The final leg was the exploration of Mars, which would start from the Space Station. Unfortunately the politics and inflation of the early 70 ' forced NASA to retreat from its ambitious program. Both the Spnce Station and inflation of the early 70 's forced NASA 10 retreat from its ambitious program. Both the Space Station and standing on one leg, the spece shuttle. Even worse, the Shuttle was constantly under attack by a NASA's post-Apollo plans for the continued manned exploration of space rested on a three legged triad. The first leg was a reusable space transportation system, the Space Shuttle, which could transport men and cargo to low earth orbit (LEO) and then land back on Earth to prepare for another mission. The second leg was a manned orbiting space station which would be resupplied by the Shuttle and would serve as both a transfer point for activities further from Earth and as a scientific and manufacturing platform. The final leg was the exploration of Mars, which would start from the Space Station. Unfortunately the politics and inflation of the early 70's forced NASA to retreat from its ambitious program. Both the Space Station and the Joumey to Mars were delayed indefinitely and the United States manned space program was left standing on one leg, the space shuttle. Even worse, the Shuttle was constantly under attack by a Democratic congress and poorly defended by a Republican president. To retain Shuttle funding, NASA was forced to make a series of major concessions. First, facing a highly constrained budget, NASA sacrificed the research and development necessary to produce a truly reusable shuttle, and instead accepted a design which was only partially reusable, eliminating one of the features which made the shuttle attractive in the first place. Solid rocket boosters (SRBs) were used instead of safer liquid fueled boosters because they required a much smaller research and development effort. Numerous other design changes were made to reduce the level of research and development required. Second, to increase its political clout and to guarantee a steady customer base, NASA enlisted the support of the United States Air Force. The Air Force could provide the considerable political clout of the Defense Department and had many satellites which required launching. However, Air Force support did not come without a price. The Shuttie payload bay was required to meet Air Force size and shape requirements which placed key constraints on the ultimate design. Even more important was the Air Force requirement that the Shutlle be able to launch from Vandenburg Air Force Base in Californla. This constraint required a larger cross range than the Florida site, which in tum decreased the total allowable vehicle weight. The weight reduction required the elimination of the design's air breathing engines, resulling in a single-pass unpowered landing. This greatly limited the safety and landing versatility of the vehicle. Factors Affecting the Launch Decision Pressures to Fly: As the year 1986 began, there was extreme pressure on NASA to "Fly out the Manifest". From its inception the Space Shuttle program had been plagued by exaggerated expectations, funding inconsistencies, and political pressures. The ultimate design was shaped almost as much by politics as physics. President Kennedy's declaration that the United States would land a man on the the moon before the end of the decade had provided NASA's Apollo program with high visibility, a clear direction, and powerful political backing. The space shuttle program was not as fortunate; it had neither a clear direction nor consistent political backing. System Status and Competition: In spite of all its early difficulties, the Shuttle program looked quite good in 1985. A total of 19 flights had been launched and recovered, and although many had experienced minor problems, all but one of the ffights could rightfully be categorized as successful. However, delays in the program as a whole had lead the Air Force to request funds to develop an expendable launch vehicle. Worse still, the French launch organization Arlanespace, had developed an independent capability to place satellites into orbit at prices the Shuttle could not hope to match without greatty increased federal subsidization (which was not likely to occur as Congress was becoming increasingly dissatisfied with the program). The shuttle was soon going to have to begin showing that it could pay for itself. There was only one way this could be done-increase the number of flights. For the shuttle program, 1986 was to be the year of truth. NASA had to prove that it could launch a large number of fights on time to continue to attract customers and retain Congressional support. Unfortunately, 1986 did not started out well for the shuttle program. Columbia, Flight 61-C, had experienced a record four on-pad aborts and had three other schedule slips. Finally, on mission 61-C. Columbia was forced to land at Edwards Air Force Base rather than at Kennedy Space Center as planned. The delays in Columbia's launch and touchdown threatened to upset the launch schedule for the rest of the year. Not only did Columbia's landing at Edwards require it to be forried back to the Cape, but several key shuttle parts had to be carried back by T-38 for use on the other vehicles. These parts included a temperature sensor for the propulsion system, the nose-wheel steering box, an air sensor for the crew cabin, and one of the five general purpose computers. At the time of the Chalenger explosion, NASA supposedly had four complete shuttles. In reality there were only enough parts for two complete shuttles. Parts were passed around and reinstalled in the orbiters with the earliest launch dates. Each time a part was removed or inserted, the shuttles were exposed to a whole host of possible servicing-induced problems. In addition to problems caused by the flight 61-C of Columbia, the next Columbia flight, 61-E, scheduled for March also put pressure on NASA to launch the Challenger on schedule. The March flight of Columbia was to carry the ASTRO spacecraft which had a very tight leunch window because NASA wanted it to reach Halley's Comet before a Russian probe arrived at the comet. In order to launch Columbia 61-E on time, Challenger had to carry out its mission and return to Kennedy by January 31. Politics: NASA had much to gain from a successful Flight 51-L. The "Teacher in Space" mission had generated much more press interest than other recent shuttle flights. Publicity was and continues to be extremely important to the agency. It is a very important tool which NASA uses to help ensure its funding. The recent success of the Space Shuttle program had left NASA in a Catch 22 type situation. Successful shuttle flights were no longer news because they were almost ordinary. However, launch aborts and delayed landings were more news worthy because they were much less common. In addition to general publicity gained from flight 51-L, NASA undoubtedly was aware that a successful mission would play well in the White House. President Reagan shared NASA's love of publicity and was about to give a State of the Union speech. The value of an elementary teacher giving a lecture from orbit was obvious and was lost neither on NASA nor on President Reagan. Sequence of Events Monday, January 27: On Monday NASA had attempted to place Challenger in orbit only to be stymied by a stripped bolt and high winds. All preliminary procedures had been completed and the crew had just boarded when the first problem struck. A microsensor on the hatch indicated that it was not shut securely; it turned out that the hatch was shut securely and the sensor was malfunctioning, but valuable time was used determining that the sensor was the problem. After closing the hatch the external hatch handle could not be removed. The threads on the connecting bolt were stripped and instead of cleanly disengaging when turned the handle simply spun around. Aftempts to use a portable drili to remove the handle faled. Technicians on the scene asked Mission Control for permission to saw the bolt off. Fearing some form of structural stress to the hatch, engineers made numerous time consuming calculations before giving the go-ahead to cut off the bolt. The entire process consumed almost two hours before the countdown was resumed. Misfortunes continued. During the attempts to verify the integrity of the hatch and remove the handle, the Squence of Events Monday, January 27: On Monday NASA had attempted to place Challenger in orbit only to be stymied by a stripped bolt and high winds. All preliminary procedures had been completed and the crew had just boarded when the first problem struck. A microsensor on the hatch indicated that it was not shut securely; it turned out that the hatch was shut securely and the sensor was malfunctioning, but valuable time was used determining that the sensor was the problem. After closing the hatch the external hatch handle could not be removed. The threads on the connecting bolt were stripped and instead of cleanly disengaging when turned the handle simply spun around. Attempts to use a portable drill to remove the handle failed. Technicians on the scene asked Mission Control for permission to saw the bolt off. Fearing some form of structural stress to the hatch, engineers made numerous time consuming calculations before giving the go-ahead to cut off the bolt. The entire process consumed almost two hours before the countdown was resumed. Misfortunes continued. During the attempts to verify the integrity of the hatch and remove the handle, the wind had been steadily rising. Chief Astronaut John Young flew a series of approaches in the shuttle training aircraft and confirmed the worst fears of Mission Control. The crosswinds at the Cape were in excess of the level allowed for the abort contingency. The opportunity had been missed and the fight would have to wait until the next possible launch window, the following morning. Everyone was quite discouraged especially since extremely cold weather was forecast for Tuesday which could further postpone the launch. Tuesday, January 28: After the canceled launch on Monday morning there was a great deal of concern about the possible effects of weather. The predicted low for Tuesday morning was 230F, far below the nominal operating temperature for many of the Challenger's subsystems. Undoubtedly, as the sun came up and the launch time approached both air temperature and vehicle would warm up, but there was stiil concern. Would the ambient temperature become high enough to meet launch requirements? NASA's Launch Commit Criteria stated that no launch should occur at temperatures below 310F. There was also concern over any permanent effects on the shuttle due to the cold overnight temperatures. All NASA centers and subcontractors involved with the Shuttle wore asked to determine the possible effects of cold weather and present any concems. In the meantime Kennedy Space Center went ahead with its freeze protection plan This included the use of anti-freeze in the huge acoustic damping ponds, and allowing warm water to bleed through pipes, showers, and hoses to provent freezing. Tho weather for Tuesday morning was to be clear and cold. Because the overnight low was forecast at 230 F, there was doubt that Challenger would be much above freezing at launch time. The Launch Commit Criterla included very specific ternperature limits for most systems on the shuttle. A special wavier would be required to launch if any of these criteria were not met. Although these criteria wero supposedly legally After the canceled launch on Monday morning there was a great deal of concern about the possible effect of weather. The predicted low for Tuesday morning was 230F, far below the nominal operating temperature for many of the Challenger's subsystems. Undoubtedly, as the sun came up and the launch time approached both air temperature and vehicle would warm up, but there was still concern. Would the ambient temperature become high enough to meet launch requirements? NASA's Launch Commit Criteria stated that no launch should occur at temperatures below 310F. There was also concern over any permanent effects on the shuttle due to the cold overnight temperatures. All NASA centers and subcontractors involved with the Shuttle were asked to determine the possible effects of cold weather and present any concerns. In the meantime Kennedy Space Center went ahead with its freeze protection plan This included the use of anti-freeze in the huge acoustic damping ponds, and allowing warm water to bleed through pipes, showers, and hoses to prevent freezing. The weather for Tuesday morning was to be clear and cold. Because the overnight low was forecast at 230 F, there was doubt that Challenger would be much above freezing at launch time. The Launch Commit Criteria included very specific temperature limits for most systems on the shuttle. A special wavier would be required to launch if any of these criteria were not met. Although these criteria were supposedly legally binding, Marshall Space Flight Center administrator Larry Mulloy had been routinely writing waivers to cover the problems with the SRBs on the recent shuttle flights. Engineers at Morton-Thiokol, the SRB manufacturer in Utah, were very concerned about the possible effects of the cold weather. The problems with the SRBs had been long known to engineers Roger Boisjoly and Allan McDonald, but both felt that their concerns were being ignored. They felt that the request by NASA to provide comment on the launch conditions was a golden opportunity to present their concems. They were sure that Challenger should not be launched in such conditions as those expected for Tuesday morning. Using weather data provided by the Air Force, they calculated that at the 9:00 am launch time the temperature of the O-rings would be only 29F. Even by 2:00pm, the O-rings would have warmed only to 380F. The design validation tests originally done by Thiokol covered only a very narrow temperature range. The temperature data base did not include any temperatures below 530F. The O-rings from Flight 51-C which had been launched under cold conditions the previous year showed very significant erosion. This was the only data available on the effects of cold, but all the Thiokol engineers agreed that the cold weather would decrease the elasticity of the synthetic rubber O-rings, which in tum might cause them to seal slowly and allow hot combustion gas to surge through the joint. Based on the these results, the engineers at Thiokol recommend to NASA Marshall that Challenger not b. launched until the O-rings reached a temperature of 530F. The management of Marshall was flabbergasted, and demanded that Thiokol prove that launching was unsafe. This was a complete reversal of normal procedure. Normally, NASA required its subcontractors to prove that something was safe. Now they were requiring their subcontractors to prove that something was unsafe. Faced with this extreme pressure, Thiokol management asked its engineers to reconsider their position. When the engineers stuck to their original recommendations not to fly, Thiokol management overruled them and gave NASA its approval to launch. Rockwell, the company which manufactured the Orbiter also had concerns about launching in cold and icy conditions. Their major concern was the possibility of ice from either the shuttle or the launch structure striking and damaging the vehicle. Like Thiokol, they recommended against the launch, and they too were pressed to explain their reasoning. Instead of sticking with their original strong recommendation against launch, the Rockwell team carefully worded their statement to say that they could not fully guarantee the safety of the shuttle. In its desire to fly out its manifest, NASA was willing to accept this as a recommendation. The final decision to launch, however, belonged to Jesse Moore. He was informed of Rockwell's concerns, but was also told that they had approved the launch. The engineers and management from NASA Marshall chose not to even mention the original concerns of Thiokol. Somehow, as the warnings and concerns were communicated up each step of the latter of responsibility they became diminished. Late Monday night the decision to push onward with the launch was made. Despite the very real concerns of some of the engineers familiar with the actual vehicle subsystems, the launch was approved. No one at NASA wanted to be responsible for further delaying an already delayed launch. Everyone was aware of the pressure on the agency to fly out the manifest, yet no one would have consciously risked the lives of the seven astronauts. Somehow, the potential rewards had come to outweigh the potential risks. Clearly, there were many reasons for launching Challenger on that cold Tuesday moming; in addition a great deal of frustration from the previous launch attempt remained. Pre-Launch Events: Although the decislon to launch on Tuesday had been made late on Monday night, it was s6ill possible that something might force NASA to postpone the launch. However, the decision to launch had been made, and nothing was going to stand in the way; the "press on" mentally was firmly established and even if all of Florida froze over, Challenger would launch. The prelaunch inspection of Challenger and the launch pad by the ice-team was unusual to say the least. The ice-team's responsiblity was to removing any frost or lce on the vehicle or launch structure. What they found during their innpection looked like something out of a sciance fiction movie. The freeze protection plan implemented by Kennedy personnel had gone very wrong. Hundreds of icicles, some up to 16 inches long, clung the to lnunch structure. The handraile and walkways noar the shuttle entrance were covered in Although the decision to launch on Tuesday had been made late on Monday night, it was still possible tha something might force NASA to postpone the launch. However, the decision to launch had been made, ar nothing was going to stand in the way; the "press on" mentality was firmly established and even if all of Florida froze over, Challenger would launch. The prelaunch inspection of Challenger and the launch pad by the ice-team was unusual to say the least. The ice-team's responsibility was to removing any frost or ice on the vehicle or launch structure. What they found during their inspection looked like something out of a science fiction movie. The freeze protection plan implemented by Kennedy personnel had gone very wrong. Hundreds of icicles, some up to 16 inches long, clung the to launch structure. The handrails and walkways near the shuttle entrance were covered in ice, making them extremely dangerous if the crew had to make an emergency evacuation. One solid sheet of ice stretched from the 195 foot level to the 235 foot level on the gantry. However, NASA continued to cling to its calculations that there would be no damage due to flying ice shaken lose during the launch. The Launch: As the SRBs ignited, the cold conditions did not allow the O-rings to properly seat. Within the first 300 milliseconds of ignition, both the primary and secondary O-rings on the lowest section of the right SRB were vaporized across 700 of arc by the hot combustion gases. Puffs of smoke with the same frequency as the vibrating booster are clearly present in pictures of the launch. However, soon after clearing the tower, a temporary seal of glassy aluminum-oxides from the propelient formed in place of the burned O-rings and Challenger continued skyward. Unfortunately, at the time of greatest dynamio pressure, the shutile encountered wind shear. As the Challenger's guidance control lurched the Shuttle to compeneate for the wind shear, the fragile aluminumoxide seal shattered. Flame arched out of the joint, struck the external tank and quickly burned through the Insulation and the the aluminum structure. Liquid Hydrogen fuel streamed out and was ignited. The Challenger exploded. Unfortunately, at the time of greatest dynamic pressure, the shuttle encountered wind shear. As the Challenger's guidance control lurched the Shuttle to compensate for the wind shear, the fragile aluminumoxide seal shattered. Flame arched out of the joint, struck the external tank and quickly bumed through the insulation and the the aluminum structure. Liquid Hydrogen fuel streamed out and was ignited. The Challenger exploded. When the remains of the cabin were recovered, it became apparent that most of the crew survived the explosion and separation of the Shuttle from the rest of the vehicle. During the 2 minute 45 second fall to the ocean at least four of the personal egress packs were activated and at least three were functioning when the Challenger stuck water. The high speed impact with the water produced a force of 200g and undoubtedly killed all the crew. Post-Crash Events: Since the crash of Challenger, NASA and external investigators have taken a look at both the shuttle and the sequence of events which allowed it to be launched. The SRBs have gone through significant redesign and now include a capture feature on the field joint. The three Marshall administrators most responsible for allowing the SRB problems to g uncorrected have all left NASA. Following the recommendations of the Rogers commission, NASA has attempted to streamline and dean-up its communication lines. A system for reporting suspected problems anonymously now exists within NASA. In addition, the astronauts themselves are now much more active in many decision making aspects of the program. The current NASA Administrator, Admiral Richard Truly, is a former shuttle astronaut. Safoty and Ethics issues There are many questions involving safety and/or ethics which are raised when we examine the decision to launch the Challenger. Obviously, the situation was unsafe. The ethics questions are more complex. If high standards of ethical conduct are to be maintained, then each person must differentlate between right and wrong, and must follow the course which is determined to be the right or ethical course. Frequently, the determination of right or wrong is not simple, and good arguments can be made on both sides of the question. Some of the Issues raised by the Challenger launch decision are listed below. 1. Are solid rocket boosters inherently too dangerous to use on manned spacecrat? If s0, why are they a part of the design? 2. Was salety traded for political accoptability in the design of the Space Shutte? 3. Did the pressure to succeed cause too many things to be promised to too many people during the design of the Space Shuttle? 4. Did the need to maintain the launch schedule force declaion makers to compromise safety in the launch decision? 5. Were responsibilities being ignored in the writing of routine launch wavers for Space Shutte? 6. Were managers at Rockwell and Morton Thiokol wise (or justified) in lgnoring the recommendations of their engineers? 7. Did the engineers at Rockwoil and Morton Thiokol do all that they could to convince their own management and NASA of the dangors of launch? 8. Whon NASA pressed its contractors to launch, did it violate its responsibility to ensure crew sofety? 9. Whon NASA dincounted the effects of the woather did I violate ats resoonsibilive to ensure crew There are many questions involving safety and/or ethics which are raised when we examine the decision to launch the Challenger. Obviously, the situation was unsafe. The ethics questions are more complex. If high standards of ethical conduct are to be maintained, then each person must differentiate between right and wrong, and must follow the course which is determined to be the right or ethical course. Frequently, the determination of right or wrong is not simple, and good arguments can be made on both sides of the question. Some of the issues raised by the Challenger launch decision are listed below. 1. Are solid rocket boosters inherently too dangerous to use on manned spacecraft? If so, why are they a part of the design? 2. Was safety traded for political acceptability in the design of the Space Shuttle? 3. Did the pressure to succeed cause too many things to be promised to too many people during the design of the Space Shuttle? 4. Did the need to maintain the launch schedule force decision makers to compromise safety in the launch decision? 5. Were responsibilities being ignored in the writing of routine launch waivers for Space Shuttle? 6. Were managers at Rockwell and Morton Thiokol wise (or justified) in ignoring the recommendations of their engineers? 7. Did the engineers at Rockwell and Morton Thiokol do all that they could to convince their own management and NASA of the dangers of launch? 8. When NASA pressed its contractors to launch, did it violate its responsibility to ensure crew safety? 9. When NASA discounted the effects of the weather, did it violate its responsibility to ensure crew safety? Roferences 1. 3Actions to Implement the Recommendations of the Presidential Commission of the Space Shutte Challenger Accident.2 Nafional Aeronautics and Space Administration. Washington, D.C. July 14. 1988. 2. Challenger: A Major Malfunction. Malcolm McConnell. Doubleday \& Company, Inc. Garden City, NY. 1987 3. Prescription for Disaster. Joseph J. Trento. Crown Publishers Inc. New York, NY. 1987