Hi, I am currently doing an investigation in maths about the probability that the final two teams in a world cup group stage know that a draw would help them qualify through the next round. The sport is football and the world cup is formatted in a way that there are four teams and each play eachother once. You get 3 pts for a win, 1 pt for a draw and 0 for a loss. The two teams with the most points qualify to the next round. I am considering that all teams playing eachother are equally as good and the probability of a win, loss or tie is all 33.3% (1/3). How can i workout the probability that on the final matchday, two teams know that 1 point will get them through regardless of the result of the other match (the other match is played at the same time). This is in order to calculate the possibility of collusion at the world cup. One such scenario is in 2018 when france played denmark and drew 0-0 because denmark would be guaranteed qualification and france was already qualified and the result still guaranteed them first place. here is a screenshot below to better visualize the situation.