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Hi, I am having trouble understanding how to calculate these questions: The data is: Mar-2011 2648.9 Apr-2011 2598.9 May-2011 2604.1 Jun-2011 2519.5 Jul-20112701.9 Aug-2011 2739.6

Hi, I am having trouble understanding how to calculate these questions:

The data is:

Mar-2011 2648.9

Apr-2011 2598.9

May-2011 2604.1

Jun-2011 2519.5

Jul-20112701.9

Aug-2011 2739.6

Sep-2011 2744.3

Oct-2011 2814.4

Nov-2011 2784.2

Dec-2011 3046.6

Jan-2012 2729.5

Feb-2012 2556.0

Mar-2012 2839.3

Apr-2012 2737.4

May-20122 836.7

Jun-2012 2784.8

Jul-2012 2932.2

Aug-2012 2962.7

Sep-2012 2885.9

Oct-2012 2966.7

Nov-2012 2973.1

Dec-2012 3177.5

Jan-2013 2849.6

Feb-2013 2607.7

Mar-2013 2924.0

Apr-2013 2853.5

May-2013 2901.5

Jun-2013 2813.0

Jul-2013 2968.4

Aug-2013 3065.1

Sep-2013 2988.7

Oct-2013 3175.4

Nov-2013 3210.8

Dec-2013 3536.8

Jan-2014 3209.1

Feb-2014 2879.9

Mar-2014 3232.0

Apr-2014 3182.1

May-2014 3228.3

Jun-2014 3067.5

Jul-2014 3315.8

Aug-2014 3350.7

Sep-2014 3360.4

Oct-2014 3401.6

Nov-2014 3374.9

Dec-2014 3692.7

Jan-2015 3391.3

Feb-2015 3027.5

Mar-2015 3361.9

Apr-2015 3266.5

May-2015 3314.0

Jun-2015 3257.5

Jul-2015 3445.3

Aug-2015 3421.1

Sep-2015 3444.4

Oct-2015 3525.8

Nov-2015 3491.3

Dec-2015 3819.9

Jan-2016 3431.8

Feb-2016 3186.9

Mar-2016 3435.2

Apr-2016 3451.7

May-2016 3431.0

Jun-2016 3313.9

Jul-2016 3573.0

Aug-2016 3647.5

Sep-2016 3696.3

Oct-2016 3716.6

Nov-2016 3678.5

Dec-2016 4047.3

Jan-2017 3621.4

Feb-2017 3260.6

Mar-2017 3619.0

Apr-2017 3567.0

May-2017 3598.6

Jun-2017 3544.2

Jul-2017 3698.1

Aug-2017 3711.2

Sep-2017 3729.7

Oct-2017 3871.1

Nov-2017 3828.1

Dec-2017 4174.9

Jan-2018 3698.8

Feb-2018 3377.8

Mar-2018 3749.1

Apr-2018 3679.3

May-2018 3666.6

Jun-2018 3601.3

Jul-2018 3844.0

Aug-2018 3908.3

Sep-2018 3863.4

Oct-2018 3929.1

Nov-2018 3934.2

Dec-2018 4278.9

Jan-2019 3826.7

Feb-2019 3456.0

Mar-2019 3897.1

Apr-2019 3808.2

May-2019 3829.0

Jun-2019 3706.0

Jul-2019 3903.5

Aug-2019 3948.4

Sep-2019 3926.6

Oct-2019 4043.2

Nov-2019 4067.3

Dec-2019 4389.3

Jan-2020 3890.1

Feb-2020 3621.3

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For the Original data for data for Cafes, Restaurants and Takeaway Food (Series ID: A3348636C) available in Table 1: Forecast the out-of-sample values for every month in the period March 2020 - February 2021 (both months inclusive) using Winter's Exponential Smoothing (Multiplicative) with the following parameters: alpha = 0.5, beta = 0.2, and gamma = 0.1. For the seeds of the level, trend, and seasonal components - utilise the methods described and discussed in class. Before you begin Exercise 2, let's check that you have the right data! The average should be 3372/3 Once you perform Winters Exponential Smoothing with alpha = 0.5, beta = 0.2, and gamma = 0.1, what are the following numerical values: 11. The seasonal component for February 2020. 12. The within-sample forecast for February 2020. 13. The out-of-sample forecast for February 2021. 14. The MSE. 15. The MAE. Critically think for a way to optimise alpha, beta, and gamma via the MSE, and report the following values after your optimisation: 16. Alpha 17. Gamma 18. The MSE 19. The within-sample forecast for February 2020. 20. The out-of-sample forecast for February 2021

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