Hi, I have already asked this question but it got cancelled with no explanation so I will try ask again and hopefully it will be more clear.

I'm currently doing an investigation in math, my topic of choice was probability and im applying this to the fifa world cup and the likeliness of potential scenarios. The fifa world cup works in a way that there are four teams in a group who each play eachother once. A win is worth 3 points, A draw is worth 1 point, and a loss is worth 0 points. At the end of the group stage the four teams are ranked based on points and the top two qualify for the next round. I would like to investigate the probability that a scenario plays out prior to the third (last) matchday in which two teams playing know that a draw will help them both qualify to the next round, regardless of the final result of the other two teams (it must be considered that the two games play out at the same time). This is in order to investigate how likely collusion could occur, one such instance was when france and denmark knew that a draw would both send them into the next round, regardless of how australia and peru would play out. (in this case france were already qualified but a draw would still permit them a first place finish which is prefferable). A screenshot is attached below to better visualize the situation.

My conditions are that the four teams involved are equally good and that competetive balance is perfect. This would subsequently mean that the probability for a win, draw or loss is 1/3.