Question
HISTORICAL FORECAST Year End 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Income Statement (millions) Revenues 341.00 355.25 361.15 375.15 Cost of Goods Sold
HISTORICAL | FORECAST | ||||||||
Year End | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
Income Statement (millions) | |||||||||
Revenues | 341.00 | 355.25 | 361.15 | 375.15 | |||||
Cost of Goods Sold | (187.55) | (195.20) | (198.70) | (213.85) | |||||
Selling & Administrative Expenses | (81.25) | (82.15) | (82.00) | (82.55) | |||||
Rental Payments | (28.25) | (28.25) | (28.25) | (28.25) | |||||
Depreciation | (25.75) | (20.30) | (21.20) | (22.10) | |||||
EBIT | 18.20 | 29.35 | 31.00 | 28.40 | |||||
Interest Expense | (11.00) | (7.25) | (8.35) | (8.42) | |||||
Interest Income | 1.55 | 2.20 | 1.15 | 1.45 | |||||
Taxable Income | 8.75 | 24.30 | 23.80 | 21.43 | |||||
Provision for Taxes (25%) | (2.19) | (6.08) | (5.95) | (5.36) | |||||
Net Income | 6.56 | 18.23 | 17.85 | 16.07 | |||||
Dividends | 4.05 | 11.65 | 10.90 | 10.15 | |||||
Ending Balance Sheet (millions) | |||||||||
Working Cash | 17.05 | 17.75 | 18.16 | 23.91 | |||||
Excess Cash & Marketable Securities | 41.00 | 42.61 | 47.00 | 49.71 | |||||
Accounts Receivable | 31.50 | 33.50 | 35.75 | 37.20 | |||||
Inventory | 18.50 | 19.35 | 20.65 | 20.10 | |||||
Current Assets | 108.05 | 113.21 | 121.56 | 130.92 | |||||
Property Plant & Equipment | 155.30 | 162.30 | 169.00 | 177.15 | |||||
Equity and other Investments | 42.00 | 46.07 | 55.12 | 49.50 | |||||
Total Assets | 305.35 | 321.58 | 345.68 | 357.57 | |||||
Accounts Payable | 20.40 | 21.15 | 21.90 | 20.55 | |||||
Accrued Liabilities | 13.65 | 13.90 | 12.95 | 13.80 | |||||
Defrerred Revenue | 7.60 | 11.15 | 11.00 | 11.45 | |||||
Short Term Debt | 31.40 | 33.07 | 33.65 | 34.95 | |||||
Notes Payable | 16.50 | 17.28 | 18.00 | 19.56 | |||||
Current Liabilities | 89.55 | 96.55 | 97.50 | 100.31 | |||||
Long Term Debt | 85.65 | 88.30 | 91.00 | 93.66 | |||||
Common Stock ($1 par) | 5.00 | 5.00 | 6.00 | 6.50 | |||||
Paid-in Capital | 60.00 | 60.00 | 72.50 | 72.50 | |||||
Retained Earnings | 65.15 | 71.73 | 78.68 | 84.60 | |||||
Total Liabilities & Equity | 305.35 | 321.58 | 345.68 | 357.57 | |||||
Valuation Indices | |||||||||
NOPAT (Operating) | 13.65 | 22.01 | 23.25 | 21.30 | |||||
NOPAT (Financing) | 13.65 | 22.01 | 23.25 | 21.30 | |||||
Invested Capital (Operating) | 180.70 | 186.70 | 197.71 | 212.56 | |||||
Invested Capital (Financing) | 180.70 | 186.70 | 197.71 | 212.56 | |||||
ROIC | 12.18% | 12.45% | 10.77% | ||||||
FCF | 16.02 | 12.24 | 6.45 | ||||||
Note the above figures are unadjusted for Operating Leases | |||||||||
Industry Sector | Auto Parts | |||||
Forecasting Drivers | ||||||
Income Statement | COGS | SG&A | Depreciation | Interest Exp | Interest Income | Dividends |
4 or 3 year average of | COGS/Sales | SG&A/Sales | DEP t+1/PP&E t | INT t+1 / DEBT 1 | 2% of Excess Cash & M/S | Div/NI |
Income Statement | Working Cash | AR | Inv | PP&E | Equity Investments | NIBCLs |
4 or 3 year average of | Working Cash / Sales | AR / Sales | Inv/COGS | PP&E / Sales | NONE | Item / Sales |
Capital Markets & Cost of Capital | ||||||
Bond Rating | BBB | Marginal Tax Rate | 25% | |||
Share Price Dec 31, 2017 | $36.40 | Shares Outstanding 12/31/2017 | 6,500,000 | |||
Industry Forecast Attributes | ||||||
Projected Sales Increase Years 1 & 2 | 4.50% | |||||
Projected Sales Increase Year 3 - 5 | 4.00% | |||||
Projected Sales Increase beyond horizon | 3.00% | |||||
Operating Leases | ||||||
Annual Rental Payment (2018-2022) covered by Operating Leases | $28.25 million | |||||
Termination of Current Lease Agreements | 12/31/22 | |||||
First, note that your figures will need to be adjusted for Operating Leases prior to calculating Adjusted ROIC and WACC. Second, don't forget to use mid-year discounting once you have arrived a preliminary estimate of Value. Third, don't forget you will need an estaimte of Horizon Value at the end of the forecast period.
However you choose to compute your WACC, include a BRIEF explanation of how you determined the Cost of Debt, the Levered Beta, and the Cost of Equity. A couple of sentences should do the job.
However, you choose to organize your work, it is best to align your work - both in the Historical and Forecast periods by year. Thus, however you choose to arrive at the WACC and the Value, both should be shown in Column E (2017) as that year is the end of the Historical Period and thus the beginning of the Forecast period.
1. Complete a 5 year forecast beginning Jan 1, 2018
2. Estimate the Weighted Average Cost of Capital as of Dec 31, 2017
3. Provide an estimate of the Value of the firm as of Dec 31, 2017 using either the EVA or FCF approach (or both, if you wish to verify your work).
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