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HISTORICAL FORECAST Year End 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Income Statement (millions) Revenues 341.00 355.25 361.15 375.15 Cost of Goods Sold

HISTORICAL FORECAST
Year End 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Income Statement (millions)
Revenues 341.00 355.25 361.15 375.15
Cost of Goods Sold (187.55) (195.20) (198.70) (213.85)
Selling & Administrative Expenses (81.25) (82.15) (82.00) (82.55)
Rental Payments (28.25) (28.25) (28.25) (28.25)
Depreciation (25.75) (20.30) (21.20) (22.10)
EBIT 18.20 29.35 31.00 28.40
Interest Expense (11.00) (7.25) (8.35) (8.42)
Interest Income 1.55 2.20 1.15 1.45
Taxable Income 8.75 24.30 23.80 21.43
Provision for Taxes (25%) (2.19) (6.08) (5.95) (5.36)
Net Income 6.56 18.23 17.85 16.07
Dividends 4.05 11.65 10.90 10.15
Ending Balance Sheet (millions)
Working Cash 17.05 17.75 18.16 23.91
Excess Cash & Marketable Securities 41.00 42.61 47.00 49.71
Accounts Receivable 31.50 33.50 35.75 37.20
Inventory 18.50 19.35 20.65 20.10
Current Assets 108.05 113.21 121.56 130.92
Property Plant & Equipment 155.30 162.30 169.00 177.15
Equity and other Investments 42.00 46.07 55.12 49.50
Total Assets 305.35 321.58 345.68 357.57
Accounts Payable 20.40 21.15 21.90 20.55
Accrued Liabilities 13.65 13.90 12.95 13.80
Defrerred Revenue 7.60 11.15 11.00 11.45
Short Term Debt 31.40 33.07 33.65 34.95
Notes Payable 16.50 17.28 18.00 19.56
Current Liabilities 89.55 96.55 97.50 100.31
Long Term Debt 85.65 88.30 91.00 93.66
Common Stock ($1 par) 5.00 5.00 6.00 6.50
Paid-in Capital 60.00 60.00 72.50 72.50
Retained Earnings 65.15 71.73 78.68 84.60
Total Liabilities & Equity 305.35 321.58 345.68 357.57
Valuation Indices
NOPAT (Operating) 13.65 22.01 23.25 21.30
NOPAT (Financing) 13.65 22.01 23.25 21.30
Invested Capital (Operating) 180.70 186.70 197.71 212.56
Invested Capital (Financing) 180.70 186.70 197.71 212.56
ROIC 12.18% 12.45% 10.77%
FCF 16.02 12.24 6.45
Note the above figures are unadjusted for Operating Leases
Industry Sector Auto Parts
Forecasting Drivers
Income Statement COGS SG&A Depreciation Interest Exp Interest Income Dividends
4 or 3 year average of COGS/Sales SG&A/Sales DEP t+1/PP&E t INT t+1 / DEBT 1 2% of Excess Cash & M/S Div/NI
Income Statement Working Cash AR Inv PP&E Equity Investments NIBCLs
4 or 3 year average of Working Cash / Sales AR / Sales Inv/COGS PP&E / Sales NONE Item / Sales
Capital Markets & Cost of Capital
Bond Rating BBB Marginal Tax Rate 25%
Share Price Dec 31, 2017 $36.40 Shares Outstanding 12/31/2017 6,500,000
Industry Forecast Attributes
Projected Sales Increase Years 1 & 2 4.50%
Projected Sales Increase Year 3 - 5 4.00%
Projected Sales Increase beyond horizon 3.00%
Operating Leases
Annual Rental Payment (2018-2022) covered by Operating Leases $28.25 million
Termination of Current Lease Agreements 12/31/22

First, note that your figures will need to be adjusted for Operating Leases prior to calculating Adjusted ROIC and WACC. Second, don't forget to use mid-year discounting once you have arrived a preliminary estimate of Value. Third, don't forget you will need an estaimte of Horizon Value at the end of the forecast period.

However you choose to compute your WACC, include a BRIEF explanation of how you determined the Cost of Debt, the Levered Beta, and the Cost of Equity. A couple of sentences should do the job.

However, you choose to organize your work, it is best to align your work - both in the Historical and Forecast periods by year. Thus, however you choose to arrive at the WACC and the Value, both should be shown in Column E (2017) as that year is the end of the Historical Period and thus the beginning of the Forecast period.

1. Complete a 5 year forecast beginning Jan 1, 2018

2. Estimate the Weighted Average Cost of Capital as of Dec 31, 2017

3. Provide an estimate of the Value of the firm as of Dec 31, 2017 using either the EVA or FCF approach (or both, if you wish to verify your work).

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