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How could the analysis and recommendation be improved?JAKE Investment Management, LLC: Investment and Spending Policy ReviewClient: Braeburn UniversityDate: January, 2 0 1 8 Summary of

How could the analysis and recommendation be improved?JAKE Investment Management, LLC: Investment and Spending Policy ReviewClient: Braeburn UniversityDate: January, 2018Summary of Situation Braeburn University retains an endowment of $800 million, invested 100 percent in equities. The endowment provides a 3.5 percent payout (based on 3-year average market value) to the school, whose annual expense budget is $500 million.Objective:Identify optimal investment allocation and spending policy.Key goal may be to grow endowment sufficient to generate income equal to 10 percent of annual expenses.Fund will grow in nominal returns.Expenses will grow with inflation.Investment policy should also minimize:Volatility of income.Risk of missing target asset level.ObservationsThe size of the endowment, while large in dollar terms, is small compared to the size of the school; 3.5 percent of the endowment represents not much more than 5 percent of the school's annual budget.Large universities exhibit endowments ranging up to $20+ billion.Once the endowment grows to $1.4 billion, the 3.5 percent withdrawal will represent 10 percent of annual expenses in current dollars.The current 3.5 percent spending policy is conservative.Lower spending rate will support higher endowment growth.University spending rates commonly range up to 5.5 percent.A 5 percent spending policy would represent 8 percent of current expenses.The full equity allocation with a value bias may be designed for long-term appreciation, but may be unnecessarily undiversified. The chart below, based on three-year cumulative returns between 1973 and 2016, illustrates that 3-year returns for a 100 percent equity portfolio vary from 40 percent to +154 percent, even when it is diversified among large-cap U.S. stocks (60%), small-cap U.S. stocks (20%), and non-U.S. stocks (20%).Graph displaying a fluctuating curve for 3-year cumulative return for 100% equity allocation from 1970 to 2016.As an alternative, spending policy could be structured with a minimum spending need, with surplus funds available for flexible initiatives, thereby reducing volatility of endowment funding for ongoing expenses.Recommended Asset AllocationGoal: Grow endowment to meet 10 percent of annual expenses over 10-year period.Inflation has averaged 3.8 percent between 1970 and 2016.The commonly used 60/40 equity/bond benchmark has averaged 10.6 percent.To meet goal, if expenses grow at 3.8 percent and endowment value grows at 10.6 percent (real return of 6.8 percent), university will need:20 years if retain 3.5 percent distribution rule.15 years if adopt 5 percent distribution rule.10 years if retain 3.5 percent distribution rule but postpone all withdrawals for 10 years.Graph displaying 2 ascending curves for 10% of expenses (solid) and 3.5% withdrawal (dashed) from 1 to 20 years from now.Risk: Limit risk of losing more than 10 percent of endowment over 3-year period.Asset Allocation Optimization Guidelines JAKE Investment Management has defined a multistep asset allocation optimization process, including the following:Diversify among multiple asset classes.Set maximum weight of 25 percent in any one class.Maximize return.Minimize risk of significant negative returns.

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