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Posted on Jul 13, 2024

How did we get the highlighted numbers?15.33 ?142.45 ?159.24 ? BUILD NEW STADIUM Current Forecast 0 1 2 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

image text in transcribed How did we get the highlighted numbers?15.33 ?142.45 ?159.24 ?

BUILD NEW STADIUM Current Forecast 0 1 2 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 13 2011 2013 2014 40.85 Revenue Attendance Sponsorship Broadcast Merchandise Other Total Revenue 2007 17.40 15.70 28.70 5.20 7.10 74.10 2008 18.97 17.11 31.28 5.67 7.74 80.77 2009 20.67 18.65 34.10 6.18 8.44 88.04 3 2010 31.55 24.40 37.17 6.73 9.19 34.39 26.59 40.51 7.34 10.02 118.86 2012 37.48 28.99 44.16 8.00 10.92 129.55 31.60 48.13 8.72 11.91 141.21 44.53 34.44 52.46 9.51 12.98 153.92 2015 48.54 37.54 57.19 10.36 14.15 2016 52.91 40.92 62.33 11.29 15.42 2017 57.67 44.60 67.94 12.31 16.81 199.33 11 2018 62.86 48.62 74.06 13.42 18.32 217.27 12 2019 68.52 52.99 80.72 14.63 19.97 236.83 2020 71.26 55.11 83.95 15.21 20.77 246.30 109.04 167.77 182.87 Operating costs Payroll Stadium Operatii Other Total Operating 50.92 16.38 1.80 69.10 56.01 17.04 1.87 74.92 61.61 17.72 1.95 81.28 67.77 21.00 2.02 90.80 74.55 21.85 2.11 98.50 82.01 22.72 2.19 106.92 90.21 23.63 2.28 116.11 99.23 24.57 2.37 126.17 109.15 25.56 2.46 137.17 120.07 26.58 2.56 149.21 132.07 27.64 2.66 162.38 145.28 28.75 2.77 176.80 159.81 29.90 2.88 192.59 166.20 31.09 3.00 200.29 EBITDA Depreciation EBIT 5.00 2.20 2.80 2.26 5.85 2.29 3.56 6.76 2.38 4.38 2.69 0.59 1.10 18.24 2.47 15.77 2.93 4.49 8.34 20.35 2.57 17.78 3.19 5.11 9.49 22.64 2.68 19.96 3.48 5.77 10.71 25.10 2.78 22.32 3.79 27.75 2.90 24.85 4.13 7.25 13.47 30.60 3.01 27.59 4.50 8.08 15.01 33.67 3.13 30.54 4.91 8.97 16.66 36.95 3.26 33.69 5.35 9.92 18.42 40.47 3.39 37.08 5.83 10.94 20.31 44.24 3.52 40.72 6.36 12.03 22.33 46.01 3.66 42.35 6.61 12.51 23.23 2.46 Interest Taxes Net Income 0.19 0.35 0.38 0.71 6.49 12.04 DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW MODEL OF NEW STADIUM 20.35 22.64 33.67 EBITDA Tax at 35% NOPAT 5.85 2.05 6.76 2.37 4.39 18.24 6.38 - 11.85 27.75 9.71 25.10 8.78 16.31 30.60 10.71 36.95 12.93 40.47 14.17 7.12 13.23 7.92 14.71 11.78 21.88 44.24 15.48 28.76 46.01 16.10 29.91 3.80 18.04 19.89 24.02 26.31 6.25 8.81 5.54 5.49 Change in WC Less:CAPEX Add:Depreciation Free Cash Flow (FCF) 4.01 3.90 128.43 0.80 119.93 4.25 128.57 0.83 119.09 5.73 3.86 9.65 12.26 3.71 9.62 30.02 6.81 4.18 9.72 28.67 7.43 4.34 9.76 30.89 8.09 4.52 9.80 33.27 4.70 9.85 9.61 4.88 9.89 38.63 10.48 5.08 9.94 41.65 11.42 5.28 9.98 44.87 9.69 1.28 24.75 26.64 35.85 30.03 499.65 Terminal Value Discount Rate Discount factor PV Cash Flows 10.25% 1.0000 0.9070 0.6768 0.6139 0.5568 0.3418 0.8227 97.98 0.7462 22.40 0.5051 15.60 0.4581 15.24 0.4155 14.90 0.3769 14.56 0.3101 168.84 108.78 16.75 16.35 15.96 14.24 Scenario 108.08 Scenario 159.24 Variance 51.15 Intrinsic Value Enterprise Value Plus: Cash Less: Debt Equity Value Number of shar Price per share 48.08 64.40 142.45 50.68 91.76 9.29 9.88 15.33 5.46 30.03 Finding Terminal Value Perpetuity Growth Model FCF @ t=2020 Terminal UFCF Growth Rate WACC Terminal Value 4% 10.25% 499.65 Cost of debt Tax rate 5.51% historical 2007 rate 35% Risk free rate Equity Beta Market Risk premium Cost of Equity Weight of Equity WACC 4.57 1.29 6.08 historical market risk premium 12.4132 CAPM: E(R) = Rf + beta (Rm - RH) 0.88 10.92791302 After-tax Cost of Weight of Debt 3.58% 0.12 DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW MODEL OF CURRENT STADIUM Current Forecast 0 1 2007 2008 EBITDA 5 5.85 Taxes -1.75 -2.05 After-tax EBITDA 3.25 3.8025 Changes in WC 2.93 Less: Capital Expenditure -3.3 -3.43 8 2015 13.61 2 2009 6.75 -2.36 4.3875 3.37 -3.57 3 2010 7.72 -2.70 5.018 3.86 -3.71 4%. 2.47 4% 7.64 -4.76 4 2011 8.76 -3.07 5.694 4.38 -3.86 4% 2.57 424 8.79 5 2012 9.88 -3.46 6.422 4.94 -4.01 4% 2.68 4%. 10.02 6 2013 11.05 -3.87 7.1825 5.53 -4.18 4% 2.78 4% 11.32 7 2014 11.35 -3.97 7.3775 5.68 -4.34 10 2017 16.43 -5.75 10.6795 8.22 -4.88 2016 14.99 -5.25 9.7435 7.49 -4.70 8.8465 6.81 -4.52 4% 3.01 11 2018 17.93 -6.28 11.6545 8.96 -5.08 4% 3.39 4%. 18.93 12 2019 19.5 -6.83 12.675 9.75 -5.28 4% 3.52 4% 20.66 322.608 0.288 98.8892 13 2020 20.28 -7.10 13.182 10.14 -5.49 4% 3.66 4% 21.49 4%. 2 29 Add: Depreciation 2.2 2.90 3.26 2.38 4% 6.57 4% 5.58 4%. 3.13 4%. 15.67 2.15 11.60 14.15 17.27 1.000 0.0000 162.8234 0.901 5.0334 0.813 5.3415 0.733 5.5977 0.660 5.8034 0.595 5.9679 0.537 6.0734 0484 5.6151 0.436 6.1703 0.393 6.1628 0.354 6.1205 0.320 6.0480 0.260 89.3619 Free Cash Flow (FCF) Terminal Value Discount factor PV Cash Flows NPV Intrinsic Value Enterprise Value Plus: Cash Less: Debt Equity Value Number of shares Price per share 162.8234 26.29 -43.08 146.0334 9.29 15.72 Based on Market Value Market Cap MV of Debt Less: Cash and Enterprise Valu 128.2 18.72 -26.29 120.63 UNDERVALUED Finding Terminal Value Perpetuity Growth Model FCF @ t=2020 Terminal UFCF Growth Rate WACC Terminal Value Terminal Value = [(FCFn X (1+g)]/(WACC -9) 21.49 4% 10.93% 322.6084947 assuming constant growth of 4% from 2020 BUILD NEW STADIUM Current Forecast 0 1 2 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 13 2011 2013 2014 40.85 Revenue Attendance Sponsorship Broadcast Merchandise Other Total Revenue 2007 17.40 15.70 28.70 5.20 7.10 74.10 2008 18.97 17.11 31.28 5.67 7.74 80.77 2009 20.67 18.65 34.10 6.18 8.44 88.04 3 2010 31.55 24.40 37.17 6.73 9.19 34.39 26.59 40.51 7.34 10.02 118.86 2012 37.48 28.99 44.16 8.00 10.92 129.55 31.60 48.13 8.72 11.91 141.21 44.53 34.44 52.46 9.51 12.98 153.92 2015 48.54 37.54 57.19 10.36 14.15 2016 52.91 40.92 62.33 11.29 15.42 2017 57.67 44.60 67.94 12.31 16.81 199.33 11 2018 62.86 48.62 74.06 13.42 18.32 217.27 12 2019 68.52 52.99 80.72 14.63 19.97 236.83 2020 71.26 55.11 83.95 15.21 20.77 246.30 109.04 167.77 182.87 Operating costs Payroll Stadium Operatii Other Total Operating 50.92 16.38 1.80 69.10 56.01 17.04 1.87 74.92 61.61 17.72 1.95 81.28 67.77 21.00 2.02 90.80 74.55 21.85 2.11 98.50 82.01 22.72 2.19 106.92 90.21 23.63 2.28 116.11 99.23 24.57 2.37 126.17 109.15 25.56 2.46 137.17 120.07 26.58 2.56 149.21 132.07 27.64 2.66 162.38 145.28 28.75 2.77 176.80 159.81 29.90 2.88 192.59 166.20 31.09 3.00 200.29 EBITDA Depreciation EBIT 5.00 2.20 2.80 2.26 5.85 2.29 3.56 6.76 2.38 4.38 2.69 0.59 1.10 18.24 2.47 15.77 2.93 4.49 8.34 20.35 2.57 17.78 3.19 5.11 9.49 22.64 2.68 19.96 3.48 5.77 10.71 25.10 2.78 22.32 3.79 27.75 2.90 24.85 4.13 7.25 13.47 30.60 3.01 27.59 4.50 8.08 15.01 33.67 3.13 30.54 4.91 8.97 16.66 36.95 3.26 33.69 5.35 9.92 18.42 40.47 3.39 37.08 5.83 10.94 20.31 44.24 3.52 40.72 6.36 12.03 22.33 46.01 3.66 42.35 6.61 12.51 23.23 2.46 Interest Taxes Net Income 0.19 0.35 0.38 0.71 6.49 12.04 DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW MODEL OF NEW STADIUM 20.35 22.64 33.67 EBITDA Tax at 35% NOPAT 5.85 2.05 6.76 2.37 4.39 18.24 6.38 - 11.85 27.75 9.71 25.10 8.78 16.31 30.60 10.71 36.95 12.93 40.47 14.17 7.12 13.23 7.92 14.71 11.78 21.88 44.24 15.48 28.76 46.01 16.10 29.91 3.80 18.04 19.89 24.02 26.31 6.25 8.81 5.54 5.49 Change in WC Less:CAPEX Add:Depreciation Free Cash Flow (FCF) 4.01 3.90 128.43 0.80 119.93 4.25 128.57 0.83 119.09 5.73 3.86 9.65 12.26 3.71 9.62 30.02 6.81 4.18 9.72 28.67 7.43 4.34 9.76 30.89 8.09 4.52 9.80 33.27 4.70 9.85 9.61 4.88 9.89 38.63 10.48 5.08 9.94 41.65 11.42 5.28 9.98 44.87 9.69 1.28 24.75 26.64 35.85 30.03 499.65 Terminal Value Discount Rate Discount factor PV Cash Flows 10.25% 1.0000 0.9070 0.6768 0.6139 0.5568 0.3418 0.8227 97.98 0.7462 22.40 0.5051 15.60 0.4581 15.24 0.4155 14.90 0.3769 14.56 0.3101 168.84 108.78 16.75 16.35 15.96 14.24 Scenario 108.08 Scenario 159.24 Variance 51.15 Intrinsic Value Enterprise Value Plus: Cash Less: Debt Equity Value Number of shar Price per share 48.08 64.40 142.45 50.68 91.76 9.29 9.88 15.33 5.46 30.03 Finding Terminal Value Perpetuity Growth Model FCF @ t=2020 Terminal UFCF Growth Rate WACC Terminal Value 4% 10.25% 499.65 Cost of debt Tax rate 5.51% historical 2007 rate 35% Risk free rate Equity Beta Market Risk premium Cost of Equity Weight of Equity WACC 4.57 1.29 6.08 historical market risk premium 12.4132 CAPM: E(R) = Rf + beta (Rm - RH) 0.88 10.92791302 After-tax Cost of Weight of Debt 3.58% 0.12 DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW MODEL OF CURRENT STADIUM Current Forecast 0 1 2007 2008 EBITDA 5 5.85 Taxes -1.75 -2.05 After-tax EBITDA 3.25 3.8025 Changes in WC 2.93 Less: Capital Expenditure -3.3 -3.43 8 2015 13.61 2 2009 6.75 -2.36 4.3875 3.37 -3.57 3 2010 7.72 -2.70 5.018 3.86 -3.71 4%. 2.47 4% 7.64 -4.76 4 2011 8.76 -3.07 5.694 4.38 -3.86 4% 2.57 424 8.79 5 2012 9.88 -3.46 6.422 4.94 -4.01 4% 2.68 4%. 10.02 6 2013 11.05 -3.87 7.1825 5.53 -4.18 4% 2.78 4% 11.32 7 2014 11.35 -3.97 7.3775 5.68 -4.34 10 2017 16.43 -5.75 10.6795 8.22 -4.88 2016 14.99 -5.25 9.7435 7.49 -4.70 8.8465 6.81 -4.52 4% 3.01 11 2018 17.93 -6.28 11.6545 8.96 -5.08 4% 3.39 4%. 18.93 12 2019 19.5 -6.83 12.675 9.75 -5.28 4% 3.52 4% 20.66 322.608 0.288 98.8892 13 2020 20.28 -7.10 13.182 10.14 -5.49 4% 3.66 4% 21.49 4%. 2 29 Add: Depreciation 2.2 2.90 3.26 2.38 4% 6.57 4% 5.58 4%. 3.13 4%. 15.67 2.15 11.60 14.15 17.27 1.000 0.0000 162.8234 0.901 5.0334 0.813 5.3415 0.733 5.5977 0.660 5.8034 0.595 5.9679 0.537 6.0734 0484 5.6151 0.436 6.1703 0.393 6.1628 0.354 6.1205 0.320 6.0480 0.260 89.3619 Free Cash Flow (FCF) Terminal Value Discount factor PV Cash Flows NPV Intrinsic Value Enterprise Value Plus: Cash Less: Debt Equity Value Number of shares Price per share 162.8234 26.29 -43.08 146.0334 9.29 15.72 Based on Market Value Market Cap MV of Debt Less: Cash and Enterprise Valu 128.2 18.72 -26.29 120.63 UNDERVALUED Finding Terminal Value Perpetuity Growth Model FCF @ t=2020 Terminal UFCF Growth Rate WACC Terminal Value Terminal Value = [(FCFn X (1+g)]/(WACC -9) 21.49 4% 10.93% 322.6084947 assuming constant growth of 4% from 2020