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how should I map out the below information into a decision tree and what are the probabilities, payoffs, profits, and demand? MARKET RESEARCH REPORT MPC
how should I map out the below information into a decision tree and what are the probabilities, payoffs, profits, and demand?
MARKET RESEARCH REPORT | |||||
MPC contracted with Drug Markets Analysts Inc. (DMA). Based on competitive research, DMA has found that there are new competing drugs recently granted FDA approval. MPC will need to be aware of the competition in the market as they consider whether to develop a new drug line, exploit the existing drug line for potential new applications, or simply continue with the current drug line at this time. The new formula is a clear advancement developed under strict guidelines and is scheduled for FDA approval in the first quarter of the year. Currently, there are only two other widely available products on the market that meet the same needs. In a highly favorable market that is supported by MPC's drug offering being considered the better solution, a new drug line with have 71% likelihood of success with a demand of 4341 units per month, the existing drug will have a 63% likelihood with a demand of 5475 units per month, and making no changes will be 81% likely to succeed with a demand of 730 units per month. In an unfavorable market, a new drug line will have a demand of 1205 units per month, the existing drug will have a demand of 1807 units per month, and making no changes will have a demand of 241 units per month. Profits are estimated to be 0.63 per unit for the new drug line, 0.48 per unit for the existing drug line with new FDA-approved uses, while the current profit is 0.84 per unit. |
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