How would the NSR contribute to the regional and global economy? Optimists point to three major contributions of an expanded NSR: First, it would benefit global transit traffic between Europe and Asia, especially to and from China. Clearly, the NSR will need to prove its reliability and its competitiveness against traditional routes to make this possible. With Russian support, a series of demonstration voyages were completed between 2010 and 2013, mainly to convince global shipping firms and insurance companies that the NSR was indeed reliable and safe. For now, however, the NSR remains a highly seasonal option, predictably accessible only between July and November. But global warming optimists hope that more open seas lie ahead. Second, Russia's arctic natural-resource projects would clearly be spurred by an expanded NSR. Currently, a good deal of existing traffic along the route is related to nickel and other metals shipments from Norilsk and to the expansion of three arctic energy projects already under development (one for liquefied natural gas, two for crude oil production). Other oil, coal, and mining projects are planned, and would greatly benefit from a more ice-free arctic and a better- developed NSR. Finally, long-term Russian planners envision huge economic potential for expanded Siberian trade with a more viable NSR. Major Siberian rivers such as the Ob, the Yenisey, and the Lena flow north, and a more highly commercialized NSR could open up these once inaccessible regions to more global trade. Still, more cautious enthusiasts suggest a slow and careful development plan is needed. Climate change is not a linear, always predictable process. What if huge investments are made in the NSR and the ice doesn't cooperate? Fluctuating global economic demand for shipping is another concern: a sustained Chinese downturn, for example, would slacken demand for the NSR. Another challenge is the lack of Russian icebreakers and ice pilots to provide competent guidance and support. More generally, a safe and reliable NSR requires better surveys of the region, expanded arctic ports, and a series of globally approved rules. Russia's Development Plan, established in 2015, seems a positive step in that direction and hopefully can provide a centralized, standardized set of protocols as well as a competitive pricing system that will attract global interest. Perhaps one day soonin a warmer, more ice-free worldthe Russian arctic will be a bustling focus of global trade and economic activity. Assignment Questions: 1. For a Chinese manufacturer, list the key advantages and disadvantages that might be associated with shipping their finished goods to western Europe via the NSR. 2. In the next century, do you think that the NSR or the Northwest Passage (around northern North America) will have the greatest economic potential? Defend your