How you analyze the sales growth projections of Starbucks? going back to the risks, what are the external factors that could change the sales revenue forecast of Starbucks?
Sales Ravenue Forecast Develepment Actuals Farecasths 2012 Tear 3 Year Year 2010 2011 Tar 2 Sales n mitgne) 12.77 s4 143 Company operstet sa s34 17.3851 227 Licensed stre 1,0s 10 004 27 17014 11. CPa, todservice and other 15547 28211 24253 334 22.37 1 16,74 132s 13. 124 12 5% Impled saes growth 147 20745 Revenu e ot change 120% Satuck ties force Segmentnd Typer Sales by Sepment and Type 201 2012 2017 2010 2013 2014 205 2015 2632 4 75 % Company-operated stone s9.534.5 157414 12770 1414309 15,83741 17,385.0 Grouh rates 1073 Nunber of eampany stores 12420 1 Salesveage Stere Saes Growth verage Stere 10e3 18T 1.197 1a12 1.318 1374 1419 Licensing 8752 1283 731 534 763155 385 8340 2227.17 13% 12.4% 12 2% Growth rates 15.15 135 1335 Nunber of eampany stores 7392 9.362 12546 A159 4171 SalesAverage Stere A112 412- 45 a151 A167 .183 Sales Crowth Avarage Store 1341% 153% 4% 44% 2425332 2 30845 A37484 CPa Feodservice and Oher 1,0 5 15547 2821 11 Growh rates 15% 0.0% 22.7% 04 12m s 20745 Net Revenues 16,7874 22,387.1 Stacks s Forecast by Segmentnd Typer 213 arbucks: Stere Operating Data 2014 2010 2011 2012 2014 205 2017 Amaricas Funertutions oe nu nw ed sach vear oe Net nee steres opened uring the yer 300 Company-operated 23 300 300 2 200 111 2 Licensed 425 Tata Tetal stores Compary operated Licensed T422 A.117 ast S44 348 13.203 4546 12624 12 399- 14.183 14783 Tatal 12903 301 15903 Ravenu 11684 756 136 13780.533 Company operated 14744 1231 Revenues ger sryar Grow ra 1173 1213 1358 1425 1407 50% Ucensed 254 112239 124569 1.372 61 Revenes ger storelyear a204 9215 Growth rate EMEA Expectalons for t w s to be epeed eh yer Net new steres opened during the ye 29 Company operated 44 100 Licensed sas T 26- 194 190 100 100 Tatal Total stores Company aparated 114 1047 1414 1.121 1251 Licensed 110 tatal 1414 1758 1 131 201 2201 Revenus Cempany operated Re ger aryer 3 10e1213 1231 61 104 140 1.113 1.104 12 1.14 1172 13 Grawh rate 13 5 83109 207 77 Licensed A152 4158 Revenues aer sorvear 155 4161 Ntewo eesed tuing the ye Ceneane d 13 4 Linsad 1a14 1445 uaal Lisanaad Cemen stan a w. aua Re ye Tula Tetltn Cmpayr Lee 3M 44 20 IN panyper Lisamsad *.. ero Fdsie nd Oen sa kare Meet Exgendr GAPE uel 1el NetGAPEX eentof v sa taets Pat nd to tnd Deprecinn eny P ane taipet ane DegonFa e aar 1415 tedbrwce t et 44 staed 0p 424 fod Belance 454 am nanng baance b ue Capen a s Tutal ea tEe aral .coas Repered wh am rECet 41 weed ra ertL n y ales Revenue Forecast Development Forecasts Actuals 2010 2011 2012 Year +1 Year +2 Year +3 Year +4 Year +5 ar ales (in millions): ompany-operated stores 8,963.5 9,632.4 10,534.5 11,574.1 12,778.1 14,149.1 15,691.7 17,385.1 censed stores 1,007.5 875.2 1,210.3 1,367.4 1,556.3 1,763.2 1,985.8 2,227.2 2,789.1 18,701.4 PG, foodservice and other 868.7 1,060.5 1,554.7 2,021.1 2,425.3 3,068.0 3,374.8 16,759.8 10,707.4 14,962.6 22.987.1 evenues 11.700.4 13.299.5 20,745.5 te of change 10.9% 12.5% 9.3% 13.7 % 12.0% 11.6% 10.8 % Implied sales growth rates. Starbucks: Sales Forecasts by Segment and Type ales by Segment and Type: 2013 2017 2010 2011 2012 2014 2015 2016 ompany-operated stores 11,574.14 9.9 % 12,778.098 17,385.07 8,963.5 9,632.4 10,534.5 14,149.091 15,691.674 Growth rates 7.5% 9.4 % 10.4 % 10.7 % 10.9 % 10.8 % 11,737 Number of company stores 8,866 9,007 9,405 9,938 10,471 11,104 12,420 Sales/Average Store 1.007 1.078 1.144 1,197 1.252 1.312 1.374 1.439 Sales Growth IAverage Store 7.0% 6.2% 4.6% 4.6% 4.7% 4.8% 4.8% 1,367.38 censing 875.2 1,007.5 1,210.3 1,556.349 1,763.151 1,985.824 2,227.17 Growth rates 15.1% 20.1% 13.0% 13.8% 13.3% 12.6% 12.2% Number of company stores 7,992 7,996 8,661 9,428 10,195 10,962 11,729 12,546 Sales/Average Store 0.112 0.126 0.145 0.151 0.159 0.167 0.175 0.183 5.0% Sales Growth /Average Store 13.0% 15.3% 4.0% 4,9% 5.1% 4.8% 1,554.7 2,425.332 3,374.849 PG, Foodservice and Other 868.7 1,060.5 2,021.11 2,789.132 3,068.045 Growth rates 46.6% 10.0 % 10.0 % 22.1% 30.0% 20.0% 15.0% 20,745.5 13,299.5 14,962.6 22,987.1 10,707.4 11,700.4 16,759.8 18,7014 t Revenues Starbucks: Store Operating Data: Starbucks: Sles Forecasti by Segment and Typer 2014 2010 2013 2017 2011 2012 2015 2016 Americas Expectations for net new stores to be opened each year: Not naw stores opened during the year 300 Company-operated 33 43 234 300 300 300 300 270 300 300 Licensed 111 208 300 10 300 600 600 Total 78 225 504 600 600 600 Total stores Company-operated: 7,580 5,044 7.623 7,857 8,157 8.457 8.757 9.057 ,357 5,346 Licensed 4776 5046 5,646 5946 246 6540 12.624 12.399 15.903 Total 12.903 13.503 14.1034 14.703 15.303 Revenues 9859.627 Company-operated 8.365.5 2.077 10,740.492 11.684.794 12,69.676 13.780.533 1.2934 Revenues per storelyear 1.173 1.231 1358 1425 1497 Growth rate: 8% 50% 5.0% 50% 50% 5 0% Licensed 6767 825.8 91741 1,018.897 1,128.239 1.245.969h 1.37265 per storelyear Growth rate 0.204 Revenues 0.168 0.177 0.185 0.195 0.215 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% EMEA. Expectations for net new stores to be opened each year: Net new stores opened during the year Company-operated 44 25 10 31 33 33 33 31 79 Licensed 100 101 67 67 67 67 100 Total 36 104 111 100 100 100 100 Total stores 1,047 948 1,014 Company-operated MT 872 15 987 Licensed 807 8864 1,054 1,121 1,188 1,255 1.322 Total 1.654 1,758 1869 1.969 2.069 2,169 2.269 2,369h Revenues: Company-operated: Revenues per storelyear 1.231.691 905.5 968 3 1,001.959 1,043.146 1.108.04 1.168.87 1.104 1.115 1.149 1.172 1.195 1.12 1% Growth rate 0% 2% 2% 2 Licensed 112.2 139.5 153 531 165.245 178.938 193.109 207.775 Revenues per storelyear 0.149 0.15 0.152 0.155 0.158 0.161 Growth rate 1% 2% 2% 2% ICAP Expectations for net new stores to be opened each year Net new stores opened during the year 350 Company-operated 30 73 154 200 200 300 10 2941 400 79 193 400 Licensed 400 400 450 266 600 600 700 70 800 Total 109 448 Total stores Company-operated 439 512 1,06 1.366 1,666 2,016 Licensed 2.334 3.028 2.141 2.628 3.428 3.828. 4,228 4,678 4494 2.846 3.234 3,894 Total 2.580 ,194 5,894 6.694 Revenues: Company-operated: Revenues per storelyear 988.46- 361.4 489 2 712.554 1356.257 1,826.128- 2.372 8471 1.289 0.831 0.930 1,023 1.115 1.205 12 % Growth rate 15% 10% 9% 8% 7% Licensed 190.9 232.2 296.437 372.2034 455.974 546.746 646.745 0.034 Revenues per storelyear 0.105 0.115 0.120 0.136 0.145 10 % 8 % Grewth rate: 12% 9% 7% Forecast Development: Capital Expenditures, Property, Plart and Equipment, and Depreciation Capital Expenditures: CAPEX Foredasts: Year +1 Year +5 Year +2 Year +3 2010 2011 2012 Year +4 CAPEX: PP&E Acquired 441 414 851 0 PP&E Sold Net CAPEX 441 414 851 1,200 1,341 1.496 1,660 1.839 Net CAPEX as a percent of 17.4 % Gross PP&E 7.7% 7.0% 13.8% 16.5% 15.8% 15.2% 14.6% 6.4 % 8.0 % Revenues 4.1% 3.5% 8.0 % 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 4.7% Property, Plant and Equipment and Depreciation Property, Plaht and Equipnent and Deprbciation Foredasts: PP&E at cost: 2010 2011 2012 Year +1 Year +2 Year +3 Year +4 Year +5 Beg. balance at cost: 6,903 8,103 9,444 10,940 12,600 Add: CAPEX forecasts from above: 1,200 1,341 1,496 1,660 1,839 6,903 12,600 End balance at cost: 5,889 6,163 8,103 9,444 10,940 14.439 Accumulated Depreciation: Beg. Balance: 4,244 4,964 5,804 -6,776 7,896 Subtract: Depreciation expense forecasts from below -720 -839 -972 -1.120 -875 4,964 -3,472 End Balance: -3,808 4,244 -5,804 -6,776 7,896 -8,770 4,704 PPSE net 2,659 2,416 2,355 3,139 3,640 4,164 5,668 Depreciation expense forecast on existing PP&E Depreciation Expense Forecast Development: Existing PP&E at cost: 613 6,903 613 613 613 205 Remaining balance to be depreciated. 2.659 2,045 1,432 818 205 PP&E Purchases: Depreciation expense forecasts on new PP&E Capex Year +1 1,200 107 107 107 107 107 Capex Year +2 1,341 119 119 119 119 Capex Year +3 1,496 133 133 133 Capex Year +4 147 1,660 147 Capex Year +5 1,839 163 839 1,120 Total Depreciation Expense 720 972 875 797.319 923.631 Portion Reported Separately on Income Statement (95 % of total) 684.12 1,063.749 830.923 Portion Reported within COGS on Income Statement (5 % of total) 36.006 41.964 48.612 55.987 43.733 Depreciation methods: 2010 2011 2012 PPE at Cost 5,889 6,163 6,903 6,026 6,533 Avg Depreciable PPE Depreciation Expense 541 550 581 Implied Avg. Useful Life in Years 11.0 11.3 Useful Life Forecast Assumption: 11.3 (in years) Sales Ravenue Forecast Develepment Actuals Farecasths 2012 Tear 3 Year Year 2010 2011 Tar 2 Sales n mitgne) 12.77 s4 143 Company operstet sa s34 17.3851 227 Licensed stre 1,0s 10 004 27 17014 11. CPa, todservice and other 15547 28211 24253 334 22.37 1 16,74 132s 13. 124 12 5% Impled saes growth 147 20745 Revenu e ot change 120% Satuck ties force Segmentnd Typer Sales by Sepment and Type 201 2012 2017 2010 2013 2014 205 2015 2632 4 75 % Company-operated stone s9.534.5 157414 12770 1414309 15,83741 17,385.0 Grouh rates 1073 Nunber of eampany stores 12420 1 Salesveage Stere Saes Growth verage Stere 10e3 18T 1.197 1a12 1.318 1374 1419 Licensing 8752 1283 731 534 763155 385 8340 2227.17 13% 12.4% 12 2% Growth rates 15.15 135 1335 Nunber of eampany stores 7392 9.362 12546 A159 4171 SalesAverage Stere A112 412- 45 a151 A167 .183 Sales Crowth Avarage Store 1341% 153% 4% 44% 2425332 2 30845 A37484 CPa Feodservice and Oher 1,0 5 15547 2821 11 Growh rates 15% 0.0% 22.7% 04 12m s 20745 Net Revenues 16,7874 22,387.1 Stacks s Forecast by Segmentnd Typer 213 arbucks: Stere Operating Data 2014 2010 2011 2012 2014 205 2017 Amaricas Funertutions oe nu nw ed sach vear oe Net nee steres opened uring the yer 300 Company-operated 23 300 300 2 200 111 2 Licensed 425 Tata Tetal stores Compary operated Licensed T422 A.117 ast S44 348 13.203 4546 12624 12 399- 14.183 14783 Tatal 12903 301 15903 Ravenu 11684 756 136 13780.533 Company operated 14744 1231 Revenues ger sryar Grow ra 1173 1213 1358 1425 1407 50% Ucensed 254 112239 124569 1.372 61 Revenes ger storelyear a204 9215 Growth rate EMEA Expectalons for t w s to be epeed eh yer Net new steres opened during the ye 29 Company operated 44 100 Licensed sas T 26- 194 190 100 100 Tatal Total stores Company aparated 114 1047 1414 1.121 1251 Licensed 110 tatal 1414 1758 1 131 201 2201 Revenus Cempany operated Re ger aryer 3 10e1213 1231 61 104 140 1.113 1.104 12 1.14 1172 13 Grawh rate 13 5 83109 207 77 Licensed A152 4158 Revenues aer sorvear 155 4161 Ntewo eesed tuing the ye Ceneane d 13 4 Linsad 1a14 1445 uaal Lisanaad Cemen stan a w. aua Re ye Tula Tetltn Cmpayr Lee 3M 44 20 IN panyper Lisamsad *.. ero Fdsie nd Oen sa kare Meet Exgendr GAPE uel 1el NetGAPEX eentof v sa taets Pat nd to tnd Deprecinn eny P ane taipet ane DegonFa e aar 1415 tedbrwce t et 44 staed 0p 424 fod Belance 454 am nanng baance b ue Capen a s Tutal ea tEe aral .coas Repered wh am rECet 41 weed ra ertL n y ales Revenue Forecast Development Forecasts Actuals 2010 2011 2012 Year +1 Year +2 Year +3 Year +4 Year +5 ar ales (in millions): ompany-operated stores 8,963.5 9,632.4 10,534.5 11,574.1 12,778.1 14,149.1 15,691.7 17,385.1 censed stores 1,007.5 875.2 1,210.3 1,367.4 1,556.3 1,763.2 1,985.8 2,227.2 2,789.1 18,701.4 PG, foodservice and other 868.7 1,060.5 1,554.7 2,021.1 2,425.3 3,068.0 3,374.8 16,759.8 10,707.4 14,962.6 22.987.1 evenues 11.700.4 13.299.5 20,745.5 te of change 10.9% 12.5% 9.3% 13.7 % 12.0% 11.6% 10.8 % Implied sales growth rates. Starbucks: Sales Forecasts by Segment and Type ales by Segment and Type: 2013 2017 2010 2011 2012 2014 2015 2016 ompany-operated stores 11,574.14 9.9 % 12,778.098 17,385.07 8,963.5 9,632.4 10,534.5 14,149.091 15,691.674 Growth rates 7.5% 9.4 % 10.4 % 10.7 % 10.9 % 10.8 % 11,737 Number of company stores 8,866 9,007 9,405 9,938 10,471 11,104 12,420 Sales/Average Store 1.007 1.078 1.144 1,197 1.252 1.312 1.374 1.439 Sales Growth IAverage Store 7.0% 6.2% 4.6% 4.6% 4.7% 4.8% 4.8% 1,367.38 censing 875.2 1,007.5 1,210.3 1,556.349 1,763.151 1,985.824 2,227.17 Growth rates 15.1% 20.1% 13.0% 13.8% 13.3% 12.6% 12.2% Number of company stores 7,992 7,996 8,661 9,428 10,195 10,962 11,729 12,546 Sales/Average Store 0.112 0.126 0.145 0.151 0.159 0.167 0.175 0.183 5.0% Sales Growth /Average Store 13.0% 15.3% 4.0% 4,9% 5.1% 4.8% 1,554.7 2,425.332 3,374.849 PG, Foodservice and Other 868.7 1,060.5 2,021.11 2,789.132 3,068.045 Growth rates 46.6% 10.0 % 10.0 % 22.1% 30.0% 20.0% 15.0% 20,745.5 13,299.5 14,962.6 22,987.1 10,707.4 11,700.4 16,759.8 18,7014 t Revenues Starbucks: Store Operating Data: Starbucks: Sles Forecasti by Segment and Typer 2014 2010 2013 2017 2011 2012 2015 2016 Americas Expectations for net new stores to be opened each year: Not naw stores opened during the year 300 Company-operated 33 43 234 300 300 300 300 270 300 300 Licensed 111 208 300 10 300 600 600 Total 78 225 504 600 600 600 Total stores Company-operated: 7,580 5,044 7.623 7,857 8,157 8.457 8.757 9.057 ,357 5,346 Licensed 4776 5046 5,646 5946 246 6540 12.624 12.399 15.903 Total 12.903 13.503 14.1034 14.703 15.303 Revenues 9859.627 Company-operated 8.365.5 2.077 10,740.492 11.684.794 12,69.676 13.780.533 1.2934 Revenues per storelyear 1.173 1.231 1358 1425 1497 Growth rate: 8% 50% 5.0% 50% 50% 5 0% Licensed 6767 825.8 91741 1,018.897 1,128.239 1.245.969h 1.37265 per storelyear Growth rate 0.204 Revenues 0.168 0.177 0.185 0.195 0.215 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% EMEA. Expectations for net new stores to be opened each year: Net new stores opened during the year Company-operated 44 25 10 31 33 33 33 31 79 Licensed 100 101 67 67 67 67 100 Total 36 104 111 100 100 100 100 Total stores 1,047 948 1,014 Company-operated MT 872 15 987 Licensed 807 8864 1,054 1,121 1,188 1,255 1.322 Total 1.654 1,758 1869 1.969 2.069 2,169 2.269 2,369h Revenues: Company-operated: Revenues per storelyear 1.231.691 905.5 968 3 1,001.959 1,043.146 1.108.04 1.168.87 1.104 1.115 1.149 1.172 1.195 1.12 1% Growth rate 0% 2% 2% 2 Licensed 112.2 139.5 153 531 165.245 178.938 193.109 207.775 Revenues per storelyear 0.149 0.15 0.152 0.155 0.158 0.161 Growth rate 1% 2% 2% 2% ICAP Expectations for net new stores to be opened each year Net new stores opened during the year 350 Company-operated 30 73 154 200 200 300 10 2941 400 79 193 400 Licensed 400 400 450 266 600 600 700 70 800 Total 109 448 Total stores Company-operated 439 512 1,06 1.366 1,666 2,016 Licensed 2.334 3.028 2.141 2.628 3.428 3.828. 4,228 4,678 4494 2.846 3.234 3,894 Total 2.580 ,194 5,894 6.694 Revenues: Company-operated: Revenues per storelyear 988.46- 361.4 489 2 712.554 1356.257 1,826.128- 2.372 8471 1.289 0.831 0.930 1,023 1.115 1.205 12 % Growth rate 15% 10% 9% 8% 7% Licensed 190.9 232.2 296.437 372.2034 455.974 546.746 646.745 0.034 Revenues per storelyear 0.105 0.115 0.120 0.136 0.145 10 % 8 % Grewth rate: 12% 9% 7% Forecast Development: Capital Expenditures, Property, Plart and Equipment, and Depreciation Capital Expenditures: CAPEX Foredasts: Year +1 Year +5 Year +2 Year +3 2010 2011 2012 Year +4 CAPEX: PP&E Acquired 441 414 851 0 PP&E Sold Net CAPEX 441 414 851 1,200 1,341 1.496 1,660 1.839 Net CAPEX as a percent of 17.4 % Gross PP&E 7.7% 7.0% 13.8% 16.5% 15.8% 15.2% 14.6% 6.4 % 8.0 % Revenues 4.1% 3.5% 8.0 % 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 4.7% Property, Plant and Equipment and Depreciation Property, Plaht and Equipnent and Deprbciation Foredasts: PP&E at cost: 2010 2011 2012 Year +1 Year +2 Year +3 Year +4 Year +5 Beg. balance at cost: 6,903 8,103 9,444 10,940 12,600 Add: CAPEX forecasts from above: 1,200 1,341 1,496 1,660 1,839 6,903 12,600 End balance at cost: 5,889 6,163 8,103 9,444 10,940 14.439 Accumulated Depreciation: Beg. Balance: 4,244 4,964 5,804 -6,776 7,896 Subtract: Depreciation expense forecasts from below -720 -839 -972 -1.120 -875 4,964 -3,472 End Balance: -3,808 4,244 -5,804 -6,776 7,896 -8,770 4,704 PPSE net 2,659 2,416 2,355 3,139 3,640 4,164 5,668 Depreciation expense forecast on existing PP&E Depreciation Expense Forecast Development: Existing PP&E at cost: 613 6,903 613 613 613 205 Remaining balance to be depreciated. 2.659 2,045 1,432 818 205 PP&E Purchases: Depreciation expense forecasts on new PP&E Capex Year +1 1,200 107 107 107 107 107 Capex Year +2 1,341 119 119 119 119 Capex Year +3 1,496 133 133 133 Capex Year +4 147 1,660 147 Capex Year +5 1,839 163 839 1,120 Total Depreciation Expense 720 972 875 797.319 923.631 Portion Reported Separately on Income Statement (95 % of total) 684.12 1,063.749 830.923 Portion Reported within COGS on Income Statement (5 % of total) 36.006 41.964 48.612 55.987 43.733 Depreciation methods: 2010 2011 2012 PPE at Cost 5,889 6,163 6,903 6,026 6,533 Avg Depreciable PPE Depreciation Expense 541 550 581 Implied Avg. Useful Life in Years 11.0 11.3 Useful Life Forecast Assumption: 11.3 (in years)
