Hypothesis It is safe to stay and fight this fire. What are the sources of potential information? Heat, visible quantity of flame, water used, body comfort What pattern do you expect in the data? Heat should match visible flames, flames should decline in propotion to water sprayed, body comfort should be steady state What pattern do you see in the data? Hotter than expected, flames continue despite water, sweaty feet inside thick insulated boots What does the pattern mean? Get out NOW! What math did you use? relative propotions {ratios} "Men in general earn more income than women" "Even women with similar education levels tend to have lower earnings than men IIln general, similarly educated men and women in similar professions earn about the same" IIln general, men earn more than women because they work longer hours"