I agree with the outcome of your equations with y= 646. I also enjoyed reading the potential pitfalls of forecasting and how it is not 100% accurate. We can not predict what can or will happen in the future which puts at us at a disadvantage when it comes to models like this and in one way they are considered faith based. I believe this because essentially, the "usefulness" of a particular model depends uponhow its assumptions suits real world application (Nandi, 2018). Would you agree that using these equations can be faith based? Provide a reference