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I am considering an investment in a new technology. There are 3 competing solutions and I know 1 of them will prevail. Right now,

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I am considering an investment in a new technology. There are 3 competing solutions and I know 1 of them will prevail. Right now, each looks equally likely to succeed. I have deep skills internally in technology #2 and #3. I have no skills regarding technology #1. It is estimated that 3 years from now, 1 of the 3 technologies will prevail and result in a new business with 1 billion dollars of NOPAT that is expected to grow a 2% per year forever requiring a one-time investment of 500 Million dollars 3 years from now. I can buy small company A which is expert in technology #1 for 2 Billion dollars. Should I buy this company? Tell me why or why not. Guessing does not count. Assume my WACC is 12% and my Tax rate does not matter since I gave you the NOPAT number above. The value of C dollars per year growing at X% forever = C/(r-x) where r is the expected return on the money. Edit View Insert Format Tools Table 12pt Paragraph BIU

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