I am stuck on the formulas for these homework problems. Is moving average always divided by 3? I would appreciate any guidance on these problems or even just helping me to set up the formulas.

Moving Average

1. Carmella's Pizza wants a 3 month moving average customer forecast for April 2020. It is __172.5 (??? Probably wrong)___

Actual

Customers

December120

January168

February212

March190

April???

Weighted Moving Average

Since the SRU holiday break impacted December & January student visits to the bookstore and the Spring Break impacted March student visits, you have assigned a weight on the most recent 3 month values to compensate for the seasonality fluctuations. They weights are: January = 1, February = 3 and March =2.

April's forecast is _________

Actual

Customers

December120

January168

February212

March190

April???

Exponential Smoothing

Using a smoothing constant chosen by management of = 0.10, the April forecast is _________.

Actual

CustomersForecast

December120110

January168174

February212200

March190175

April???

Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)

The Via Via Pizza manager wants to test the use of exponential smoothing to see how well the techniques works in predicting customer visits. He guessed that the December visits would total 116 and suggested an exponential smoothing factor of = 0.10.

Absolute

ActualForecastDeviation (Forecast Error)

Customerswith = 0.10for = 0.10

December120116

January168

February212

March190

Sum of Absolute Deviations =??????

MAD = |Actual - Forecast|=??????

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