• I computed the monthly forecast for February through December of year t using the nave method, a three-month moving average, a five month moving average, and a three-month weighted moving average (0.45/0.35/0.2).
• Considering data for year t only, I used two applications of exponential smoothing (a = 0.3 and a = 0.5) to compute a forecast for January of year t+1.
• I believe that there is an upward trend in the demand for peppers as time passes. I used trend-adjusted exponential smoothing and ALL of the available data with (a = 0.5 and b = 0.3) to compute the demand forecast for January of year t+1.
• I also computed the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for each of the methods used, basing it on ALL of the available data.

Year Month Case of Peppers naive Error ABS Error Error^2 ABS % Error AD AF 1 JAN Year Month Case of Peppers AB MA Error ABS Error Error^2 ABS % Error AE Year Month Case of Peppers AG AH MA Error ABS Error Error^2 ABS % Error AJ AM FEB JAN 25 JAN Year Month Caae of Peppers MA Error ABS Error Error 2 ABS % Error MAR MAR FEB 25 JAN APR FEB MAY APR MAR 26 25 MAR JUN MAY APR JUN MAY APR JUL JUN MAY AUG AUG JUL JUN SEP SEP AUG JUL OCT OCT SEP NOV SEP NOV OCT DEC NOV OCT JAN 1 DEC NOV FEB MAR FEB JAN DEC MAR 2 FEB JAN APR 2 MAR FEB MAY 2 APR MAR JUN 2 MAY APR AUG JUL 2 JUN AUG JUL JUN SEP JUL OCT 2 OCT SEP AUG NOV SEP NOV 2 OCT DEC 2 NOV JAN 2 DEC OCT DEC NOV FEB 37.00 3.00 3.00 3 JAN 2 DEC MAR 40.00 1.00 9.00 FEB 46.33 6.33 6 40.11 15.83% JAN JAN APR 41.00 4.00 4.00 2.44% 3 MAR 16.00 10.81% 43.33 -2.33 2.33 5.44 FEB 5.69% 3 MAR 47.80 -7.80 7.80 60.84 19.50% 3 FEB 11.71% 37.00 8.00 8.00 MAR 45.00 -5.00 5.00 25.00 12.50% MAY 45.80 4.80 4.80 23.04 JUN 45.00 5.00 5.00 64.00 APR 17.78% 39.33 -2.33 2 5.44 6.31% APR 44.00 -7.00 7.00 49.00 18.92% 25.00 MAY 39.33 5.67 32.11 12.59% 3 MAY 41.60 3.40 3.40 11.56 APR 41.55 -0.55 0.30 1.34% JUN 7.56% MAY 39.85 -2.85 2.85 8.12 7.70% JUL 50.00 -7.00 10.00% AUG 43.00 4.00 7.00 49.00 16.28% JUL 41.00 9.00 9.00 81.00 36.00 1.00 JUL 40.00 10.00 10.00 100.00 39.00 6.00 6.00 13.33% 44.00 -1.00 JUN 2.33% SEP 42.60 0.40 0.40 20.00% 41.40 8.60 73.96 17.20% 47.00 9.00 16.00 8.519 AUG |0.16 0.93% JUL 9.00 81.00 56.00 4.00 4.00 16.00 16.07% SEP 46.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 45.65 -2.65 2.65 7.02 6.16% 7.699 OCT 46.67 9.33 2.13% 9.33 87.11 AUG 16.67% 43.20 3.80 3.80 14.44 8.09% AUG 45.85 1.15 1.15 1.32 2.45% 52.00 3.00 3.00 9.00 5.45% 3NOV 48.67 3.33 51.67 3.33 3.33 11.11 3 SEP 56 6.41% OCT 52 44.40 11.60 11.60 134.56 20.71% 46.20 9.80 9.80 96.04 17.50% 55.00 -1.00 1.00 1.00 1.85% DEC 3.33 54.33 -0.33 11.11 6.06% 0.33 1 0.11 3 NOV 55 48.20 3.80 3.80 49.60 5.40 5.40 29.16 7.31% OCT 9.82% 50.25 1.75 54.00 0.62% 50.60 3.40 NOV 1.75 52.40 2.60 3.06 3.37% 2.60 53.67 6.76 52.80 11.56 6.30% 54.15 -0.15 0.28% 4.45 26.09 9.49% 153.95 0.15 0.02 MAD MSE MAPE 4.00 25.05 MAD MSE MAPE 5.58 40.80 11.89% MAD MSE MAPE 3.74 23.42 7.87% MAD MSE MAPEExponential Smooth ( =0.3) Error ABS Error Errorn2 ABS % Error Exponential Smooth( Error ABS Error Error ABS % Error Forecast, Ft+0 Trend, Tt+1 Forecast a=.5, B=.3 AFt ABS Error ABS % Error 47.05 MAS 89 9 8 8 MSE MAPE -3.70 MSE MAPE 3.42 MSE 7.33% MAPE