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I need answers from 4 to 7, please do it correctly or I'll downvote. FORECASTING RESTRICTIONS There are two final problems. While Hood believes the
I need answers from 4 to 7, please do it correctly or I'll downvote.
FORECASTING RESTRICTIONS There are two final problems. While Hood believes the company should use more debt, she recognizes that the final decision rests with the Tipton family, Given their debt aversion it is important that any projections not appear too debt-heavy. She also wonders how much flexibility she would have to use short- term debt, assuming the decision to borrow is made. Hood, therefore, instructs Davis to work within the following constraints when doing the forecast. As working hypotheses she wants Tipton's debt ratio to remain below 0.5, and the current and quick ratios must not fall below 2 and 1, respectively. In other words, the financial projection cannot violate any one of these restrictions. "Given these limitations, see how much flexibility we have in raising any funds needed," Hood tells Davis. QUESTIONS 1. Project the 1996 income statement assuming no borrowing, 2. Project Tipton's 1996 balance sheet assuming no borrowing, 3. Explain how the $93.75 million cost-of-goods estimate for 1996 was ob- tained 4. How much money will Tipton need to raise in 1996? 5. (a) How much of this money can Tipton borrow long term without violat- ing the constraints imposed by Hood? CASE 1 1 TIPTON ICE CREAM FINANCIAL FORECASTING George Tipton began the Tipton Ice Cream Company nearly five decades ago. He patented a soft ice cream and right from the outset paid special attention to quality. "We only make one product, but we make it in many flavors and we make it well," "Tipton was fond of saying. The company was an immediate suc- cess and sales quickly reached seven figures. DEBT AVERSION The firm expects strong growth in the coming year (1996) and Brenda Hood, Tipton's chief financial officer, hopes she can make a strong case for borrowing to finance the company's expansion. She realizes, however, that she is likely to Tunaendelerin. DEBT AVERSION The firm expects strong growth in the coming year (1996) and Brenda Hood, Tipton's chief financial officer, hopes she can make a strong case for borrowing to finance the company's expansion. She realizes, however, that she is likely to face stiff opposition from the Tipton family. George Tipton, perhaps unduly in- fluenced by the Great Depression of the 1930s, detested borrowing money and his motto was "Never a lender nor borrower be." For nearly 25 years all the com- pany's stock was owned by the Tipton family, but due to expansion new shares have been sold during the last 15 years to individuals outside the family. By 1995 the Tipton family owns 60 percent of all shares, and although the family has not been very active in running the firm, it does insist on one family tradition: "Never a lender nor borrower be." To this day Tipton has never owed anything beyond its accounts payable and accruals. Hood knows this is an extreme case of debt aversion and the policy has hurt the owners' profits. For example, historically Tipton has been slightly above the industry average in return on total assets but consistently below in return on owner's equity. At each annual meeting she has tried unsuccessfully to convince the Tipton clan to use more debt. And each year Hood heard a chorus of "Never a lender...." But perhaps this year would be different. She recalls two sessions on financial management that she held for the nonfi- nancial executives of Tipton. Some members of the Tipton family had attended NANCIAL PLANNING these sessions. She explained that when sales increase, then inventory, cash, and accounts receivable must also increase. Further, if the firm's existing operating capacity was insufficient to support the increased sales, additional fixed assets would be required. She had also stressed the need for pro forma statements to determine the magnitude of the funds needed. It was the first time members of the "Tipton family had received any formal financial exposure, and she recalls they seemed interested and attentive. At the previous annual meetings Hood had avoided using any technical fi- nancial analysis to make her case for borrowing. But now she thinks, "Why not?" FORECASTING ASSUMPTIONS She decides to estimate (1) the amount of funds Tipton will have to obtain in 1996; (2) the 1996 income statement assuming all of the financing is done through borrowing; and (3) another income statement assuming all new stock is issued. To help in the estimates Hood enlists Frank Davis, a recent MBA. Davis reminds her that 1996 is expected to be a big year for the company; sales are predicted to increase by 125 percent. Due to the strong demand, marketing feels any cost increases can easily be passed on. Consequently, the gross mar- gin should exceed the current level of 21 percent. Hood notes that the sales-to- inventory ratio will be lowered to 6.5, and that purchases should total 101.481.000. This suggests cost of goods for 1996 would be $93,750,000. ... Davis He in- 7. Will the Tipton family own less than 50 percent of the firm's stock if no funds are borrowed? (Assume shares are sold to nonfamily members at $11.50 per share, which nets $10.50 after brokerage fees.) 8. Calculate the dividend per share and earnings per share if the expansion is (a) Financed by new equity (b) Financed by borrowing 9. Use the percent of sales method to forecast the amount of financing. Why does this estimate differ from your answer in question 4? 10. (a) When making a financial forecast, which one of the items that must be estimated is the most important? Why? (b) Which item do you think is typically the most difficult to forecast? 11. (a) What are some ratios you would calculate to help determine the risk of using debt? (b) Play the role of a consultant. Industry averages for all categories of ra- tios are given in Exhibit 3. Based on your previous answers, the ratios calculated in part (a), and these industry averages, would you endorse the debt financing if you were a member of the Tipton family? Explain. SOFTWARE QUESTION 12. Hood is generally quite comfortable with the assumptions of her forecast. Still, she recognizes that her estimates could be wrong and she decides to analyze the following scenarios. S-1 S-2 S-3 5.4 $115,000.00 1996 sales CGS/sales Cash/sales ACP AP/sales Sales/inv. $125,000.00 75 028 36.00 023 38.00 07 6.30 $125,000.00 75 025 39,00 063 6.30 $130,000.00 77 02 38.00 .06 6. 6.50 4/6 NOTE: AP refers to accounts payable. CASE 11 TIPTON ICE CREAM 73 The first two scenarios, S-1 and S-2, represent the estimates of the firm's mar- keting director and sales manager, respectively, people whose judgment Hood respects. The third scenario considers the possibility that the firm's working capital management won't be as efficient as Hood expects. The final set of estimates as- sumes that sales exceed Hood's original projection Analyze each scenario assuming first that all needed funds are raised by eq. uity, and then assume all needed funds are raised by selling bonds, that is, "long-term debt." How, if at all, do the results affect your answer to question 11(b)? (Keep all other estimates at their base-case values.) EXHIBIT 1 Selected Financial Information for Previous Three Years (000s) 1993 1994 1995 Sales SS8.500 596.000 S100 CASE 11 TIPTON ICE CREAM 73 The first two scenarios, S-1 and S-2, represent the estimates of the firm's mar- keting director and sales manager, respectively, people whose judgment Hood respects. The third scenario considers the possibility that the firm's working capital management won't be as efficient as Hood expects. The final set of estimates as- sumes that sales exceed Hood's original projection. Analyze each scenario assuming first that all needed funds are raised by eq- uits and then seerme all need funderid huvalline hand hai keting director and sales manager, respectively, people whose judgment Hood respects. The third scenario considers the possibility that the firm's working capital management won't be as efficient as Hood expects. The final set of estimates as- sumes that sales exceed Hood's original projection. Analyze each scenario assuming first that all needed funds are raised by eq- uity, and then assume all needed funds are raised by selling bonds, that is, "long-term debt." How, if at all, do the results affect your answer to question 11(b)? (Keep all other estimates at their base-case values.) EXHIBIT 1 Selected Financial Information for Previous Three Years (000s) 1993 1994 1995 Sales Receivables Average collection period (days) Accounts payable Accruals S88.500 $ 7.432 30.2 $5,700 596,000 $8.533 32 $6,000 $ 1.800 $100.000 $8.000 28.8 $9,500 $3,000 $2,400 EXHIBIT 2 Balance Sheets (000s) Equity 1996 Debt 1996 1995 $ 3.000 8,000 11,500 22,500 24,000 (4,000) 20,000 S42.500 $(4,600) $(4,600) Assets Cash & marketable securities Accounts receivable Inventory Current assets Gross fixed assets Accumulated depreciation Net fixed assets Total assets Liabilities and Equity Notes payable Accounts payable Accruals Current liabilities Bonds Common stock (510 par) Retained earnings Total liabilities and equity $ 0 910 3.000 12.500 0 20,000 10,000 $42.52 (continued) 74 PART III FINANCIAL PLANNING EXHIBIT 2 (continued) Income Statements (000) Equity 1996 Dube 1997 1995 $100,000 79,000 21.000 10.000 600 200 10.200 0 10,200 $600 220 Net sales Cost of goods Gross profit Administrative & selling expenses Depreciation Miscellaneous EBIT Interest Earnings before taxes Taxes (50%) Net income Dividends To retained earnings $600 220 5.100 5.100 22550 2.550 EXHIBIT 3 Industry Averages Current Quick Debt (%) Times interest earned Inventory turnover (sales) Average collection period (days) Total asset tumover Gross profit margin (%) Return on total assets (") Net profit on sales (1) Return on net worth (%) 1.8 08 50.0 6.0 6,0 26.0 2.1 18.0 8.5 3.9 17.0
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