I need help figuring out where to start here. We are able to use StatsTools.

Dataset 12_49 from your textbook, contains US monthly retail sales (in $ millions) for the period Jan 92-July 15.

a. Explaining your process (in a brief verbal paragraph) and showing all relevant (i.e., be selective) intermediate output, construct a regression based time series model that can be used to predict sales in the following period. Clearly state what components of a time series are present in the data.

b. Use the model to make a prediction for August 2015 - July 2016 (each month for a whole year). You may use simplifying assumptions or approximations or modify your model (depending on what modeling devices you used) in order to proceed beyond the first month.

c. Make a deseasonalized (i.e., with the seasonal fluctuations removed) prediction for each of the months August 2015 through July 2016.

(Hint: A simplified way to is to assume that there is no cycle, and then a trend line does this easily)

Month Total Retail Sales Jan-1992 131,193 Feb-1992 131,218 Mar-1992 142,720 Apr-1992 147,194 May-1992 152,442 Jun-1992 152,218 Jul-1992 152,770 Aug-1992 152,726 Sep-1992 148,170 Oct-1992 156,034 Nov-1992 154,527 Dec-1992 190,648 Jan-1993 137,677 Feb-1993 134,411 Mar-1993 152,917 Apr-1993 158,360 May-1993 163,676 Jun-1993 163,054 Jul-1993 164,623 Aug-1993 164,278 Sep-1993 159,529 Oct-1993 163,887 Nov-1993 169,758 Dec-1993 206,764 Jan-1994 145,728 Feb-1994 146,070 Mar-1994 172,084 Apr-1994 171,195 May-1994 175,614 Jun-1994 178,665 Jul-1994 173,403 Aug-1994 182,253 Sep-1994 175,200 Oct-1994 178,763 Nov-1994 184,128 Dec-1994 222,146 Jan-1995 158,526 Feb-1995 155,064 Mar-1995 181,720 Apr-1995 176,251 May-1995 190,334 Jun-1995 191,485 Jul-1995 183,059 Aug-1995 193,352 Sep-1995 182,280 Oct-1995 184,307 Nov-1995 193,400 Dec-1995 227,826 Jan-1996 167,034 Feb-1996 173,811 Mar-1996 191,277 Apr-1996 191,402 May-1996 206,021 Jun-1996 197,304 Jul-1996 196,818 Aug-1996 204,064 Sep-1996 189,696 Oct-1996 201,691 Nov-1996 203,603 Dec-1996 237,808 Jan-1997 180,756 Feb-1997 178,126 Mar-1997 202,095 Apr-1997 200,118 May-1997 211,961 Jun-1997 206,099 Jul-1997 208,705 Aug-1997 211,796 Sep-1997 201,216 Oct-1997 209,729 Nov-1997 207,728 Dec-1997 250,208 Jan-1998 187,457 Feb-1998 183,760 Mar-1998 208,473 Apr-1998 211,700 May-1998 221,272 Jun-1998 220,650 Jul-1998 217,646 Aug-1998 217,088 Sep-1998 208,594 Oct-1998 220,343 Nov-1998 219,160 Dec-1998 267,425 Jan-1999 196,690 Feb-1999 199,317 Mar-1999 228,999 Apr-1999 227,833 May-1999 237,481 Jun-1999 236,796 Jul-1999 236,740 Aug-1999 240,374 Sep-1999 230,628 Oct-1999 233,284 Nov-1999 241,183 Dec-1999 294,598 Jan-2000 213,535 Feb-2000 226,127 Mar-2000 254,594 Apr-2000 239,153 May-2000 256,566 Jun-2000 255,127 Jul-2000 244,712 Aug-2000 257,505 Sep-2000 243,502 Oct-2000 244,985 Nov-2000 252,477 Dec-2000 293,707 Jan-2001 225,441 Feb-2001 223,161 Mar-2001 255,103 Apr-2001 248,135 May-2001 267,515 Jun-2001 259,354 Jul-2001 251,244 Aug-2001 266,280 Sep-2001 237,363 Oct-2001 264,855 Nov-2001 262,967 Dec-2001 298,883 Jan-2002 230,738 Feb-2002 227,529 Mar-2002 256,803 Apr-2002 258,445 May-2002 271,012 Jun-2002 260,335 Jul-2002 265,702 Aug-2002 277,164 Sep-2002 247,096 Oct-2002 260,177 Nov-2002 264,350 Dec-2002 308,862 Jan-2003 241,885 Feb-2003 232,142 Mar-2003 266,235 Apr-2003 265,102 May-2003 281,249 Jun-2003 270,702 Jul-2003 279,134 Aug-2003 285,404 Sep-2003 265,356 Oct-2003 273,680 Nov-2003 273,591 Dec-2003 326,974 Jan-2004 252,390 Feb-2004 253,150 Mar-2004 288,808 Apr-2004 283,254 May-2004 296,609 Jun-2004 288,976 Jul-2004 295,099 Aug-2004 294,243 Sep-2004 283,209 Oct-2004 287,089 Nov-2004 294,401 Dec-2004 356,122 Jan-2005 263,489 Feb-2005 264,588 Mar-2005 304,757 Apr-2005 303,491 May-2005 310,921 Jun-2005 318,328 Jul-2005 316,764 Aug-2005 320,543 Sep-2005 300,161 Oct-2005 301,081 Nov-2005 311,716 Dec-2005 371,032 Jan-2006 286,319 Feb-2006 282,780 Mar-2006 328,178 Apr-2006 315,668 May-2006 337,026 Jun-2006 331,510 Jul-2006 325,688 Aug-2006 337,910 Sep-2006 310,431 Oct-2006 311,774 Nov-2006 324,014 Dec-2006 380,016 Jan-2007 295,211 Feb-2007 290,185 Mar-2007 338,097 Apr-2007 321,683 May-2007 352,587 Jun-2007 338,118 Jul-2007 332,620 Aug-2007 347,511 Sep-2007 316,918 Oct-2007 330,348 Nov-2007 342,425 Dec-2007 389,037 Jan-2008 307,594 Feb-2008 308,715 Mar-2008 334,559 Apr-2008 333,748 May-2008 356,951 Jun-2008 339,510 Jul-2008 343,506 Aug-2008 340,167 Sep-2008 312,373 Oct-2008 311,365 Nov-2008 298,053 Dec-2008 343,638 Jan-2009 273,784 Feb-2009 264,862 Mar-2009 293,443 Apr-2009 293,419 May-2009 308,051 Jun-2009 305,593 Jul-2009 308,959 Aug-2009 312,986 Sep-2009 287,645 Oct-2009 300,314 Nov-2009 303,197 Dec-2009 362,180 Jan-2010 278,535 Feb-2010 275,456 Mar-2010 322,883 Apr-2010 319,387 May-2010 325,465 Jun-2010 319,479 Jul-2010 321,083 Aug-2010 320,676 Sep-2010 307,853 Oct-2010 315,193 Nov-2010 328,253 Dec-2010 388,049 Jan-2011 298,146 Feb-2011 298,868 Mar-2011 348,353 Apr-2011 339,991 May-2011 349,175 Jun-2011 347,671 Jul-2011 341,184 Aug-2011 351,330 Sep-2011 333,245 Oct-2011 337,126 Nov-2011 351,821 Dec-2011 410,215 Jan-2012 314,870 Feb-2012 331,197 Mar-2012 371,042 Apr-2012 350,480 May-2012 373,713 Jun-2012 356,626 Jul-2012 351,103 Aug-2012 372,818 Sep-2012 342,927 Oct-2012 355,860 Nov-2012 369,571 Dec-2012 417,960 Jan-2013 333,850 Feb-2013 332,708 Mar-2013 374,010 Apr-2013 367,140 May-2013 390,687 Jun-2013 370,657 Jul-2013 376,900 Aug-2013 388,051 Sep-2013 353,435 Oct-2013 370,454 Nov-2013 379,187 Dec-2013 431,019 Jan-2014 338,717 Feb-2014 336,123 Mar-2014 385,415 Apr-2014 382,768 May-2014 407,164 Jun-2014 385,897 Jul-2014 394,170 Aug-2014 399,721 Sep-2014 372,924 Oct-2014 387,724 Nov-2014 390,174 Dec-2014 448,751 Jan-2015 346,652 Feb-2015 339,474 Mar-2015 389,603 Apr-2015 386,073 May-2015 406,782 Jun-2015 395,538 Jul-2015 402,871