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SCENARIO PERFROMANCE ANALYSIS Scenario Probability (p) ROR % (rs) (S) Stocks (s) Deviation Square for Exp. Deviation Ret. (SD) (Dev.) Dey^2 p*r's % Bonds (b) Deviation Square for Exp. Deviation Ret. (SD) (Dev.) Dey^2 ROR % (nb) p * SD * % p * SD Recession (S) Normal (Sn) Boom (Sb) 35.0% 40.0% 25.0% -9.0% 6.0% 28.0% 5.0% 7.5% -6.5% 100.0% Quest 1 Quest 2 % Variance Quest 3 Variance- Quest 4 PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS (Asset Allocation) Asset Allocation Weights (W%) Stocks (Ws) = 50% Bonds (Wb) = 50% COVARIANCE & CORRELATION Scenario (S) Probability (p) ROR % (rs) p*r's Deviation for Exp. Ret. (Dev.) Square Deviation (SD) Dev^2 p * SD Stocks Bonds (Deviation (Deviation from the from the mean) mean) Ds * Db Covariance [p (Ds*Db) % Recession (S) Normal (Sn) Boom (Sb) 35.0% 40.0% 25.0% 100.0% Quest 5 % Variance Quest 6 % Covariance Correlation coefficient = Quest 7