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Presentation topic:

Since 2018, the US and China are engaged in a trade war that's characterized by increased tariffs on goods imported from both countries. According to the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the trade war has eventually led to "tariffs on some US$ 550 billion worth of Chinese goods and US$ 185 billion worth of US goods" (see a detailed timeline of the trade war from(https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3146489/us-china-trade-war-timeline-key-dates-and-events-july-2018)by the SCMP). To put things in perspective, the total US-China bilateral trade is worth about US$ 615.2 billion in 2020 (Source:https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/china-mongolia-taiwan/peoples-republic-china#:~:text=U.S.%20goods%20and%20services%20trade,was%20%24285.5%20billion%20in%202020.).

Your thoughts on the effectiveness of the trade war (i.e., has the trade war achieved its intended purpose of reducing US trade deficit with China? Why do you think the trade war has been effective/ineffective?),

Your thoughts on the potential winners or losers from the trade war. What's the impact of the trade war on the consumers and producers from both countries?

If you are a trade policy maker in either the US or China (pick one country's position to argue), will you recommend the trade war to continue? Why or why not?

ABSTRACT-

The US-China trade war, which began in 2018, has been a significant event in the global economic landscape, with increased tariffs on goods imported from both countries. This essay explores the effectiveness of the trade war, its potential winners and losers, and its impact on consumers and producers from both countries. Despite the US administration's intention to reduce the US trade deficit with China, the trade war has not achieved its objective. Both countries have experienced economic losses, with some US businesses benefiting from the tariffs while others suffer due to higher input costs. Ultimately, it is essential to find ways to resolve the trade dispute and promote cooperation between the two countries for the benefit of the global economy.

Explanation:

Introduction-

The US-China trade war, which began in 2018, has been a significant event in the global economic landscape. The trade war was initiated by the US administration under President Donald Trump, aiming to reduce the US trade deficit with China by imposing tariffs on Chinese goods. However, the trade war has not achieved its intended purpose, and the US trade deficit with China has not decreased. The trade war has had a considerable impact on the global economy, with both winners and losers. This essay will examine the effectiveness of the trade war in achieving its objectives, the potential winners and losers from the trade war, and its impact on consumers and producers from both countries. Furthermore, it will explore whether the trade war should continue, depending on whether I am a trade policy maker in the US or China.

Below are the thoughts on the effectiveness of the trade war-

The trade war has not been effective in achieving its intended purpose of reducing the US trade deficit with China. Despite the US administration imposing tariffs on Chinese goods, the trade deficit has not decreased but increased. According to the US Census Bureau, the trade deficit with China in 2020 was $311.8 billion, up from $296.4 billion in 2019. One reason for the ineffectiveness of the trade war could be the interconnectedness of the global economy. Imposing tariffs on Chinese goods may have led to higher prices for US consumers and decreased exports for Chinese businesses, resulting in job losses and decreased revenues. While the trade war did result in some reductions in the US trade deficit with China, it is difficult to say whether it has been effective overall. The trade deficit has decreased somewhat, but this could be due to a number of factors, including shifts in global supply chains and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, the trade war has come at a cost to both economies, with businesses and consumers in both countries facing higher prices and increased uncertainty.

Another factor to consider is that the trade war has not addressed the underlying issues that led to the US trade deficit with China in the first place. To truly address these issues, policymakers would need to work with China to address concerns about intellectual property theft and other unfair trade practices. This would require a more nuanced approach than simply imposing tariffs.

Furthermore, China has retaliated with tariffs on US goods, leading to decreased demand for US exports and hurting US businesses. Another reason could be the lack of a comprehensive strategy and the use of tariffs as a negotiating tactic rather than a long-term solution to address underlying issues. Moreover, the trade war has created uncertainty, which can lead to reduced investment and trade, further hurting both economies.

Below is the discussion on the thoughts on the potential winners or losers from the trade war and its impact on the consumers and producers-

The trade war has had a considerable impact on the global economy, with both winners and losers. The US administration's protectionist policies aimed to benefit US producers, but they have also affected US consumers.

Potential winners from the trade war:

• US businesses that compete with Chinese imports may benefit from increased demand for their products due to the tariffs on Chinese goods.
• Some US agricultural sectors have experienced a boost in demand as China has turned to other sources to replace lost US imports due to tariffs.
• Other countries that are not involved in the trade war may benefit from increased demand for their goods.

Potential losers from the trade war:

• US consumers may face higher prices for goods due to tariffs on Chinese imports, leading to decreased purchasing power.
• US businesses that rely on Chinese imports for their supply chains may face higher input costs, leading to decreased profits.
• Chinese businesses that export to the US may face decreased demand, leading to decreased revenues and job losses.
• Some US agricultural sectors have been hit hard by retaliatory tariffs from China, leading to decreased exports and decreased revenues.

Impact of the trade war on consumers and producers from both countries:

• US consumers may face higher prices for goods due to tariffs on Chinese imports, leading to decreased purchasing power.
• Chinese businesses that export to the US may face decreased demand, leading to decreased revenues and job losses.
• US businesses that rely on Chinese imports for their supply chains may face higher input costs, leading to decreased profits.
• US businesses that compete with Chinese imports may benefit from increased demand for their products due to the tariffs on Chinese goods.
• Some US agricultural sectors have experienced a boost in demand as China has turned to other sources to replace lost US imports due to tariffs.
• Some US agricultural sectors have been hit hard by retaliatory tariffs from China, leading to decreased exports and decreased revenues.
• The trade war has led to increased uncertainty, which can lead to reduced investment and trade, further hurting both economies.
• The trade war has also led to a breakdown in trust between the US and China, hindering cooperation on other issues.

Below is the discussion regarding the recommendation on war-

If I were a trade policy maker in China, I would not recommend continuing the trade war as it has led to significant economic losses for both countries. The US-China trade relationship is critical for global economic stability, and the trade war has created uncertainty and instability in the global economy. The tariffs have led to higher prices for US consumers and decreased exports for Chinese businesses, leading to job losses and decreased revenues. Moreover, the trade war has not achieved its intended objective of reducing the US trade deficit with China. Instead, it has led to an increase in the US trade deficit with other countries like Vietnam and Mexico.

Conclusion-

The US-China trade war has had significant economic consequences for both countries and the global economy. Despite the US administration's intention to reduce the US trade deficit with China, the trade war has not achieved its objective. Instead, it has led to higher prices for US consumers and decreased exports for Chinese businesses, resulting in job losses and decreased revenues. The winners and losers from the trade war are complex, with some US businesses benefiting from the tariffs while others suffer due to higher input costs. If I were a trade policy maker in China, I would not recommend continuing the trade war as it has led to significant economic losses for both countries. Ultimately, it is essential to find ways to resolve the trade dispute and promote cooperation between the two countries for the benefit of the global economy.