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I need to summarize several paragraphs for tomorrow but I don't how to do it so I need help Economic Risk and Uncertainty Investors sometimes

I need to summarize several paragraphs for tomorrow but I don't how to do it so I need help

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Economic Risk and Uncertainty Investors sometimes know with certainty the outcomes that each possible course of action will produce. A firm with $100,000 in cash that can be invested in a 30-day Treasury bill yielding 6 percent ($493 interest income for 30 days) or used to prepay a 10 percent bank loan ($822 interest expense for 30 days) can determine with certainty that prepayment of the bank loan provides a $329 higher 1-month return. A retailer can 1 Collin Levy, "Sam Zell: Professor Risk," The Wall Street Journal Online, October 20, 2007, http: //on1ine. wsj .com. Part 5: Long-Term Investment Decisions just as easily predict the cost savings earned by placing a given order directly with the manufacturer versus through an independent wholesaler; manufacturers can estimate the precise cost effect of meeting a rush order when overtime wages rather than standard labor rates are required. Order backlogs give a wide variety of consumer and producer goods manufacturers a clear indication of product demand conditions. Similarly, book, magazine, and trade journal publishers accurately judge product demand conditions on the basis of subscription revenues. Even when events cannot be predicted exactly, only a modest level of decision uncertainty is present in such situations. Many other important managerial decisions are made under conditions of risk or uncertainty. Economic risk is the chance of loss because all possible outcomes and their associated probabilities are unknown. Actions taken in such a decision environment are purely speculative, such as the buy and sell decisions made by speculators in commodity, futures, and options markets. All decision makers are equally likely to profit as well as to lose; luck is the sole determinant of success or failure. Uncertainty exists when the outcomes of managerial decisions cannot be predicted with absolute accuracy, but all possibilities and their associated probabilities are known. Under conditions of uncertainty, informed managerial decisions are possible. Experience, insight, and prudence allow investment managers to devise strategies for minimizing the chance of failing to meet business objectives. When the level of risk and the attitudes toward risk taking are known, the effects of uncertainty can be directly reected in the basic valuation model of the firm. The certainty equivalent method converts expected risky profit streams to their certain sum equivalents to eliminate value differences that reSult from different risk levels. For riskaverse decision makers, the value of a risky stream of payments is less than the value of a certain stream, and the application of certainty equivalent adjustment factors results in a downward adjustment in the value of expected returns. For riskseeking decision makers, the value of a risky stream of payments is greater than that of a certain stream, and application of certainty equivalent adjustment factors results in an upward adjustment in the value of expected returns. Another method used to reflect uncertainty in the basic valuation model is the risk-adjusted discount rate approach. In this technique, the interest rate used in the denominator of the basic valuation model depends on the level of risk. For highly risk-averse decision makers, higher discount rates are implemented; for less risk-averse decision makers, lower discount rates are employed. Using this technique, discounted expected profit streams reect risk differences and become directly comparable. 631

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