I recently received a bonus of $8,000 and are thinking of investing this sum of money for your retirement 20 years later. Patrick Teo, my financial planner, approached me recently an offered two investment products.

Product A will earn an annual return of 5% per year for the first 5 years. If there is no recession in Thailand during the first 5 years, all amounts invested will earn an annual return of 7% for the next 10 years, otherwise, returns will be 3% per year.

Alternatively, Product B allows you to invest $800 per year (at the beginning of each year) for the next 10 years. It will earn a return of 5% per year. This product will mature 20 years later.

Over the next two decades, the deposit rate offered by local banks is expected to be 2% per year, which is compounded daily. Whereas, lending rates are expected to be 6% per year (compounded monthly).

Based on a recent article you read from Business Times, economists have predicted that there will be a 70% chance of a recession happening over the next several years.

How do I determine and justify which investment product to choose. Stating any assumptions made.