ICI Canada

ICI's Canadian subsidiary $($now part of AkzoNobel$)$ discovered a new but unpatentable application for a chemical agent to reduce pulp$-$mill water pollution. $17$ However, everything was quite uncertain, and the management was trying to decide whether to go ahead with its R&D or abandon the product. The following questions indicate the primary risks:

Would market tests confirm that there is a significant market for the product and could the company develop a new process for making this product$-$that is$,$ is it technically feasible?

After a production process is developed, would the company's board sanction production on a commercial scale?

$.$ Would the venture turn out to be commercially successful?

The management team assumed that each of these questions had a yes or no answer. The probabilities of yes answers are shown below. The plus$-$or$-$minus values indicate management's uncertainty about the true probabilities.

$036+0\mathrm{.}09$