ICI's Canadian subsidiary $($now part of AkzoNobel$)$ discovered a new...

ICI's Canadian subsidiary $($now part of AkzoNobel$)$ discovered a new but unpatentable application for a chemical agent to reduce pulp$-$mill water pollution$\mathrm{.}17$ However, everything was quite uncertain, and the management was trying to decide whether to go ahead with its R&D or abandon the product. The following questions indicate the primary risks:

Would market tests confirm that there is a significant market for the product and could the company develop a new process for making this product$$that is$,$ is it technically feasible?

After a production process is developed, would the company's board sanction production on a commercial scale?

Would the venture turn out to be commercially successful?

The management team assumed that each of these questions had a yes or no answer. The probabilities of yes answers are shown below. The plus$-$or$-$minus values indicate management's uncertainty about the true probabilities.

Significant market and technical feasibility $($P$1)0\mathrm{.}36\backslash$pm $0\mathrm{.}09$

Board sanctions plant $($P$2)0\mathrm{.}8\backslash$pm $0\mathrm{.}2$

Commercial success $($P$3)0\mathrm{.}8\backslash$pm $0\mathrm{.}2$

The primary economic factors and their expense$/$gain $($in million dollars$)$ were the following:

The marketing development cost to determine whether there is a significant market, and research expenses to identify a new production process for the product $($C$1)$: $$1\backslash$pm $25\%$

The process development costs, including pre$-$sanction engineering and commercial development $($C$2)$: $$3\mathrm{.}5\backslash$pm $25\%$

The commercial development costs after the board's sanction $($C$3)$: $$1\mathrm{.}0\backslash$pm $25\%$

The venture value $($net present value$)$ if successful $($R$)$: $$25\backslash$pm $50\%$

The plus$-$or$-$minus values indicate management's considerable uncertainty about the values.

Question

Should management go ahead with R&D for this product? How can this question be fully answered?