IDR 16,150,- IDR 16,450 BCA maintains a bid-ask fee of IDR 300 per US dollar. Question: 1. Which model should be used if the significance a = 5% is used? Explain 2. Based on the model you choose, If the scenario is about the projection of the rupiah exchange rate, dollar and f are correct, what is Karmila's rate of profit from the Future contract ($ based on Chicago IMM account balance) and how much rupiah is the total profit received by Karmila.Trade is well below the priority list during the public health crisis. However, it is still important to ensure that the policies ta ken are not worsen the situation. In the case of the CDVIDlQ pandemic, a number of governments in the world have unfortunately made the current crisis situation much worse. In the United States, Trump seems to have only realized last week, the COVlD19 pandemic is a serious threat that requires a serious response. However, he still hasn't understand the strategy \"all parties must be ready to work" means all elements in the US government needs to work with the private sector and civil society to overcome the health crisis and economic crisis that hit America today. In terms of trade, despite a national emergency, Trump and his advisers act as if nothing has changed at all. This condition will certainly effect on the value of the dollar against the pound {]. This will certainly encourage the value of USS to depreciate against in the first quarter 2020. Therefore an economic consulting rm in the USA predicts Changes in the settlement price quote at IMM Chicago are as follows: Table 1: Changes to settlement price quotes at IMM Chicago Based on forecasted economic conditions anssal "m m2. [sum.- The outbreak ofthe Corona virus or CovidlE} has had an impact on several countries who contracted the virus. Most of the In donesian people themselves have feel the impact of this virus outbreak. One of the effects felt is the limitation of activity in social life. Where, some outdoor activities such as work, school to worship that requires meeting with a crowd of people dismissed. Of course, it aims to avoid increasing the number of victims from the CovidlS virus itself. Moreover, so that the chain of spread ofthe virus can be immediately stopped. But in fact, the impact ofthe Corona virus has also disrupted the economy Indonesia and several other affected oou ntries. For Indonesia itself, the impact perceived is the possibility of a weakening ofthe value of the rupiah against the US dollar. Based on this info rmation. the BCA economic team projected a rupiah exchange quote against the US dollar through two models that are considered the most significant, namely: Model 1 : BP.= {1008+ D.65|NF +0.45INC Model 2 : BP. = 0.002 DASINT+03INC Model summary of processed statistics are: Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Std Error of F Sig The estimate 1 0.902(a) 0.814 0.807 2.45627 99.543 0.000(a) 2 0.897(a) 0.805 0.798 2.55211 104.162 0.045(a) BP = is the change in the middle exchange rate of the rupiah against the US dollar (premium or discount) INT = is the difference in interest rates between the Republic of Indonesia and the USA INF = is the difference in the inflation rate between the Republic of Indonesia and the USA INC = is the difference in economic growth between the Republic of Indonesia and the USA Meanwhile, estimates of differences in interest rates, inflation and economic growth between The Unitary State of the Republic of Indonesia and the United States of America are as follows: (The occurrence of inflation and interest rates is based on the economic situation, it is estimated Probability of Boom = 30%, Normal = 40%, and Recession = 30%) Tanggal INF (% ) INC (%) 5/11/2020 1.75 5/12/2020 1.25 5/13/2020 2 5/14/2020 5/15/2020 2 5/18/2020 Based on the information above, Shasha is one of the BCA customers who has a total of quite a significant savings and he is willing to speculate in f for it he intends to speculate on IMM Chicago by buying futures contracts through his brother is a broker at Merill Linch. Number of contracts that are planned to be purchased a total of 5 contracts; (one pound contract = 62,500 f units with an initial margin of $1,000 and maintenance margin $750 per contract). It is planned that the contract will be held for five days starting Monday, May 11, 2020 (Saturday and Sunday the stock exchange is closed). So he plans bought Friday, May 8, 2020 sold on Monday, May 18, 2020. The contract price on Friday, 8 May 2020 is estimated at $1.5435/E. To be able to play in the futures market, Karmila must transfer funds from BCA to Merill Linch's account, transfers are made as long as the balance required by Merill Linch (Account Balance) is insufficient, but if it exceeds what Karmila has set it's not withdraw the funds. The exchange rate used as a guide for transfers is the spot rate which quoted by BCA on the trading day. (the first transfer was made on Friday, Friday) , May 8, 2020, thus the exchange rate used is the spot rate quote on Friday, May 8, 2020). The quote for the rupiah against the US dollar at BCA on Friday 8 May 2020 is : Bid ask