If an economic agent believes that the current state of the world will persist into the future (possibly in opposition to probabilistic reality) we say they have a projection bias. This projection bias can be summarized via a parameter . If = 1 for an economic agent this would mean they are certain the future state of the world will be identical to the present. If = 0 they are certain that the current state of the world will not predetermine future states of the world in any way. For between 0 and 1 we expect that there is probability the future will be identical to the present and 1 - probability that future states of the world will be determined probabilistically (given the probabilities listed above). Assume that there is no actual correlation between your current health and your future health