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I'm sitting in a room wondering whether it's sunny out. Marquan walks in wearing sandals. He almost never wears sandals, though he is more likely
I'm sitting in a room wondering whether it's sunny out. Marquan walks in wearing sandals. He almost never wears sandals, though he is more likely to wear sandals if it's sunny. Roughly, the probability he'd wear sandals if it's sunny out is 5%, and the probability he'd wear sandals if it's not sunny out is 1%. Jiao walks in wearing a T-shirt, which is what she always wears when it's sunny. The probability she'd be wearing a T-shirt if it's sunny out is almost 100%. But there's only about a 50% probability that she'd be wearing a T-shirt if it's not sunny out. Which piece of evidence that it's sunny is stronger, and why? a. the evidence from Marquan's sandals is stronger because he's so unlikely to wear sandals either way, so it's surprising b. the evidence from Jiao's T-shirt is stronger, because her wearing a T-shirt is exactly what we'd expect to see if it's sunny, whereas Marquan wearing sandals is so unlikely either way. c. the evidence from Marquan's sandals is stronger because evidence strength is about comparatively how much more likely E is given H than given not-H. d. the evidence from Jiao's T-shirt is stronger, because
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