Imagine that you are a project manager in an NGO. The donors have suggested that in order to sustain the project, you need to come up with an income generating project. there are three possible projects: A,B and C. You need to recommended only one of the projects with reasons justifying your choice.

Projects A,B and C require initial investments of USD 30000, USD. 20000 and USD.25000 respectively.

if project A is chosen there is a probability of 0.4 that the return in one year will be USD. 40000, there is also a probability of 0.2 that the return in one year will be USD.20000

On the other hand, if project B is chosen there is a probability of 0.5 that the return in one year will be USD.25000, There is also a probability of 0.3 that the return in one year will be USD. 20000 while there is a probability of 0.2 that the return in one year will be USD. 10000.

And if project C is chosen there is a probability of 0.4 that the return in one year will be USD. 50000, there is also a probability of 0.1 that the return in one year will be USD. USD 30000 while there is a probability of 0.5 that the return in one year will be USD. 26000

A) Draw a decision tree to illustrate the scenario above.

b) Using the decision tree in a) above , analyse the scenario and recommend one of the three projects to the donor.

c) Justify your answer.